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Hi Jim,
See what you mean. Last 8 trading days are sidewards with rising volume.
Looks indeed like bottoming-out process.
Probabilities for reaction are going up. Going long from this point looks
like a pretty low risk idea to me..., stop would be a little under Sep. 11 low.
What do you think?
These 2 purple- and 1 grey lines I'm looking at, are these your famous
trend-channel lines?
STDT, LTDT and MTDT ?
Frans
At 18:52 14-09-98 -0400, you wrote:
>Frans,
> You're on the list, I'll send chart by separate message. You
>right, I do wrestle with all of that <G>. Richard Arms invented
>Equivolume Charting back in the early 60s. In equivolume and
>Candlevolume charts, the width of the box is a function of volume.
>Therefore a wide box means lots of volume. A series of wide squat
>boxes in a sideways type pattern mean that a lot of volume isn't
>moving the market and therefore there is a good probability that the
>existing short term trend is about to reverse. The reversal is
>confirmed by a series of tall boxes in the opposite direction. TRV
>boxes in the last week have that "typical equivolume reversal
>pattern", now if we can just get that series of tall narrow up boxes
><G>.
>
>Jim
>-----Original Message-----
>From: derksenf <derksenf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Monday, September 14, 1998 2:40 AM
>Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
>
>
>>Hi Jim,
>>
>>Always love to read your comments.
>>The ideas are pretty consistent.
>>And I "smell" your wrestling with moneymanagement. (How much (%) in
>shares,
>>how much (%) in this specific stock. Shall I go big into this one or
>shall I
>>scale in. Take all profits/loss or scale out? etc.)
>>Admire your guts, especially your taking long positions in what
>"everybody"
>>percepts as a downmarket. You must really trust yourself and your
>>indicators. I like that.
>>
>>You wrote: "a typical Equivolume reversal pattern"
>>Please explain...
>>
>>And please put me on your list.
>>
>>Trade cool,
>>
>>Frans
>>
>>
>>At 13:53 12-09-98 -0400, you wrote:
>>>All,
>>> The market did move up yesterday and I did open my DELL
>position at 56
>>3/8. So far so good, now if it will just follow through <G>. I took
>a long
>>look at the indices last night and they are acting right for my
>theory. To
>>expand it a little, I believe the DJIA is trying to set up a volatile
>>sideways or horizontal channel trading range between 7500 and 8000.
>The
>>DJIA is not near the bottom of any of my trend channels but both the
>OEX and
>>SPX are bouncing off the bottom of long term channels. There is ,
>however,
>>some support for the DJIA near 7500 from the Jan lows and resistance
>above
>>8000 from last falls highs. Looking at the daily action, the DJIA
>has
>>tested the 7500 level three times in the last two weeks so it does
>look like
>>a bottoming action. With the volatility we have seen, I fully expect
>>another test of the 8000 level soon. However, this is still a
>somewhat
>>tenuous theory and a long way from reality. I will commit to
>positions to
>>play the theory, but want to do so more cautiously then usual with
>very
>>close stops. That means any stock I pick must be close to the bottom
>of the
>>channel since I set my stops under the channel and preferable has
>just
>>bounced up a little. Also I'm only going to play the large market
>leaders
>>in groups I'm interested in.
>>> Even with the large DELL position and my normal size RDC
>position, I'm
>>still over 50% cash and want at least one more position to play the
>bounce
>>I'm hoping for. I think the brokers and financial service groups
>have been
>>over punished and over sold lately so that's the group for this weeks
>pick.
>>I narrowed my list to Schwab and Travelers Group (TRV) and decided on
>TRV
>>since it is so over sold and since Sandy Weill always bounces back.
>I only
>>wish I had ridden his coat tails more in the past <G>. TRV is going
>to be
>>the true financial services giant when the merger with Citicorp is
>completed.
>>> TRV at 40 7/8 broke out of a Short Term Down Trend Channel
>Friday on
>>good volume. It's also in a Long Term Up Trend Channel (LTUTC) with
>the top
>>at 80 3/8 and the bottom at 38. It peaked at 73 3/8 on 4/6/98 and
>then went
>>into a four month CANSLIM cup type formation but failed to breakout
>in Jul
>>and then went into a tail spin to a low of 36.4375 Friday morning
>before the
>>good up move. Looking at the chart, the last week shows a typical
>>Equivolume reversal pattern with TRV bouncing off the bottom of the
>LTUTC
>>twice on high volume. It closed at the lows on the first bounce, but
>closed
>>at the highs yesterday. The Support/Resistance and CMO indicators
>look like
>>the beginning of a reversal pattern. The fundamentals are better
>than ever
>>with the PE at 12.1, price/sales at 1.1, return on equity at 17.5%, 5
>yr.
>>revenue growth rate at 49% and 5 yr. earnings growth rate at 19%.
>TRV just
>>kept growing while the stock price dropped. That's why I think it's
>so over
>>sold and such a bargain right here. I'll take a long position at
>Monday's
>>open, set my target just under the top of the LTUTC at 80 and my
>mental stop
>>just under it at 37 3/4. I'd like to hang on to this one as a long
>term
>>core position if it will let me so I'll wait until a good short term
>up
>>trend channel forms before moving my stop up to it.
>>> I'm sending a TRV.GIF chart to everyone on my email chart list.
>If
>>you're not on the list, and want on, just yell.
>>>
>>>Jim
>>><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
>>><HTML>
>>><HEAD>
>>>
>>><META content=text/html;charset=iso-8859-1
>>http-equiv=Content-Type><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3
>>HTML//EN"><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN"><!DOCTYPE
>HTML
>>PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD W3 HTML//EN">
>>><META content='"MSHTML 4.72.3509.100"' name=GENERATOR>
>>></HEAD>
>>><BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
>>><DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>All,</FONT></DIV>
>>><DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> The market
>did
>>move up
>>>yesterday and I did open my DELL position at 56 3/8. So far so
>good, now
>>>if it will just follow through <G>. I took a long look
>at the
>>>indices last night and they are acting right for my theory. To
>expand
>>it a
>>>little, I believe the DJIA is trying to set up a volatile sideways
>or
>>horizontal
>>>channel trading range between 7500 and 8000. The DJIA is not
>near the
>>>bottom of any of my trend channels but both the OEX and SPX are
>bouncing
>>off the
>>>bottom of long term channels. There is , however, some support
>for the
>>>DJIA near 7500 from the Jan lows and resistance above 8000 from last
>falls
>>>highs. Looking at the daily action, the DJIA has tested the
>7500 level
>>>three times in the last two weeks so it does look like a bottoming
>>action.
>>>With the volatility we have seen, I fully expect another test of the
>8000
>>level
>>>soon. However, this is still a somewhat tenuous theory and a
>long way
>>from
>>>reality. I will commit to positions to play the theory, but
>want to
>>do so
>>>more cautiously then usual with very close stops. That means
>any stock I
>>>pick must be close to the bottom of the channel since I set my stops
>under the
>>>channel and preferable has just bounced up a little. Also I'm
>only going
>>>to play the large market leaders in groups I'm interested in.
>>></FONT></DIV>
>>><DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> Even with
>the large
>>>DELL position and my normal size RDC position, I'm still over 50%
>cash and
>>want
>>>at least one more position to play the bounce I'm hoping for.
>I think
>>the
>>>brokers and financial service groups have been over punished and
>over sold
>>>lately so that's the group for this weeks pick. I narrowed my
>list to
>>>Schwab and Travelers Group (TRV) and decided on TRV since it is so
>over
>>sold and
>>>since Sandy Weill always bounces back. I only wish I had
>ridden his coat
>>>tails more in the past <G>. TRV is going to be the true
>financial
>>>services giant when the merger with Citicorp is
>completed.</FONT></DIV>
>>><DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> TRV at 40
>7/8
>>broke out
>>>of a Short Term Down Trend Channel Friday on good volume. It's
>also in a
>>>Long Term Up Trend Channel (LTUTC) with the top at 80 3/8 and the
>bottom at
>>>38. It peaked at 73 3/8 on 4/6/98 and then went into a four
>month
>>CANSLIM
>>>cup type formation but failed to breakout in Jul and then went into
>a tail
>>spin
>>>to a low of 36.4375 Friday morning before the good up move.
>Looking
>>at the
>>>chart, the last week shows a typical Equivolume reversal pattern
>with TRV
>>>bouncing off the bottom of the LTUTC twice on high volume. It
>closed at
>>>the lows on the first bounce, but closed at the highs
>yesterday. The
>>>Support/Resistance and CMO indicators look like the beginning of a
>reversal
>>>pattern. The fundamentals are better than ever with the PE at
>12.1,
>>>price/sales at 1.1, return on equity at 17.5%, 5 yr. revenue growth
>rate at
>>49%
>>>and 5 yr. earnings growth rate at 19%. TRV just kept growing
>while the
>>>stock price dropped. That's why I think it's so over sold and
>such a
>>>bargain right here. I'll take a long position at Monday's
>open, set my
>>>target just under the top of the LTUTC at 80 and my mental stop just
>under
>>it at
>>>37 3/4. I'd like to hang on to this one as a long term core
>position
>>if it
>>>will let me so I'll wait until a good short term up trend channel
>forms before
>>>moving my stop up to it. </FONT></DIV>
>>><DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2> I'm sending
>a TRV.GIF
>>>chart to everyone on my email chart list. If you're not on the
>list, and
>>>want on, just yell.</FONT></DIV>
>>><DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
>>><DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Jim </FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
>>>
>>
>
>
>
>
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