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Harley,
Too late, I closed it. I'm all cash now except I did jump back
into WCOM puts. When the overall market trend turns back up, I'll be
one of the first to jump back into DELL.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wednesday, September 02, 1998 9:44 AM
Subject: Re: Weekly Pick and AMAT
>Good job. You might think about holding DELL a little longer.
>People will still buy DELL.
>Harley
>
>Jim Greening wrote:
>
>> Harley,
>> I sold my puts when they opened today at 3 1/2 for more than a
>> double in two days. Then I decided to cross my fingers and sit on
>> DELL, SMOD, and WLA which all closed below my mental stop
yesterday.
>> They closed so far below that I was hoping for a least a dead cat
>> bounce today and we got it. They all moved up good today and may
go
>> some more in the morning, but I think I'm going to close them out
on
>> the open. That will actually leave me all cash. I can't even
>> remember the last time that happened <G>.
>> Anyway, my system says that the trend is down and I shouldn't
be
>> long now so I'll stick with short positions until the trend
changes.
>> If WCOM raises just a little more to around 46, I'll buy the puts
>> again but may take a little large position this time.
>>
>> Jim
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 10:39 PM
>> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick and AMAT
>>
>> >Jim,
>> >
>> >Well the other thing is that the advisors have been telling some
>> clients
>> >to sell the rallies. The Nightly Business Report or The News Hour
>> with Jim
>> >Lehr suggested a rally Tuesday morning, after the morning sell
off. I
>> can
>> >see it but I don't see a carry through.
>> >
>> >I have struggled with this from time to time on when does one take
>> profits
>> >in times like these - i.e., a wind fall profit. I think part of
the
>> >problem for me is not having a plan.
>> >Here is the plan I am thinking of:
>> >I did look at the AMAT chart and there is another long term
support
>> at 20
>> >1/2. If for some reason AMAT gaps down and gets there early in the
>> >morning, I'll close out my shorts on AMAT. That would mean that
AMAT
>> would
>> >be down about 4 pts in the morning. Or way above it's average true
>> range.
>> >
>> >However on the other hand I can see AMAT in a bear market going to
>> $10.
>> >
>> >I think part of my problem still comes from having too small of an
>> account
>> >to be able to really diversify and not being able to leverage my
>> money
>> >with options. The other thing is when I make this kind of money in
>> such a
>> >short time I am not quite sure how to handle it. However I am
better
>> at it
>> >now than what I use to be.
>> >
>> >I know that some on this list have been making this kind of money
>> every
>> >week for a long time. I am sure it took you some time to get use
to
>> it as
>> >well.
>> >
>> >Harley
>> >
>> >Jim Greening wrote:
>> >
>> >> Harley,
>> >> I don't see any support for another 400 Dow points. Having
>> said
>> >> that, watch for the rally tomorrow <G>.
>> >>
>> >> Jim
>> >> -----Original Message-----
>> >> From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >> Cc: Alan Kwong <alankwong@xxxxxxxx>
>> >> Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 4:01 PM
>> >> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
>> >>
>> >> >I guess I have something to learn if we are in a bear market.
>> Since I
>> >> have been
>> >> >shorting my normal reactions have been that there is usually a
>> rally
>> >> to look for
>> >> >after a sharp down turn. But I guess that that was because the
>> bias
>> >> was up. I
>> >> >almost covered amat on several occasions today but hung n
there.
>> The
>> >> market will
>> >> >be closing soon and after AMAT broke 25 I doubt that I will
cover.
>> In
>> >> fact I
>> >> >will look to add to my position in AMAT. I now have 200 shares.
I
>> >> will wait
>> >> >until tomorrow to-do that. Maybe I can catch a rally back into
the
>> >> mid 25s.
>> >> >
>> >> >Harley
>> >> >
>> >> >Harley Meyer wrote:
>> >> >
>> >> >> Hello Jim,
>> >> >>
>> >> >> I hope you wait on the puts. I would suspect that we could
get a
>> >> small rally
>> >> >> this morning, but I also see that WCOM has fallen a bit too
much
>> of
>> >> late and
>> >> >> I can realistically see a rally if not today soon in WCOM. IF
>> you
>> >> are dying
>> >> >> to jump in buy your puts but also by some out of the money
calls
>> as
>> >> well.
>> >> >>
>> >> >> Harley
>> >> >>
>> >> >> John Manasco wrote:
>> >> >>
>> >> >> > Jim
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Suffer me for a moment since I'm new at this options stuff.
If
>> >> WCOM does
>> >> >> > go to 38 in the next few weeks then yes the Dec 40 put will
>> >> double, but
>> >> >> > the Dec 47.50 will go from 4.250 bid to about 15 to 16 in
the
>> >> same time
>> >> >> > frame. And since it has a delta near .45 it has a much
better
>> >> chance of
>> >> >> > making money IMHO. Granted your exposure is less with an
OTM
>> put
>> >> but
>> >> >> > your chances of making money seem to be less also. That
>> doesn't
>> >> mean you
>> >> >> > won't make a ton, just that it seems to me the probability
is
>> >> less.
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > If you're really up for indigestion how about selling the
Sep.
>> >> 47.50
>> >> >> > calls for the same premium you're buying the Dec 40 puts?
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > John Manasco
>> >> >> >
>> >> >> > Jim Greening wrote:
>> >> >> > >
>> >> >> > > I don't intend to hold this position
>> >> >> > > very long, but also don't want to lose a lot of time
value
>> each
>> >> day so
>> >> >> > > I compromised and looked at the December put options.
Since
>> >> I'm
>> >> >> > > expecting a sharp drop to under 40, I decided on the Out
of
>> The
>> >> Money
>> >> >> > > (OTM) Dec 40 Put options ( LDQXH - Bid 1.375, asked
1.625).
>> >> Going
>> >> >> > > this far OTM gives me much greater leverage at increased
>> risk.
>> >> >> > > However, the amount at risk for 1000 shares is small
>> compared
>> >> to the
>> >> >> > > amount at risk shorting the same number of shares and the
>> >> reward for a
>> >> >> > > large move is essentially the same. The problems come if
we
>> >> don't get
>> >> >> > > the large move <G>.
>> >> >> > >
>> >> >> > > Jim
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>
>
>
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