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In a message dated 98-08-20 03:44:11 EDT, you write:
<< Pretty hard to support your contention, Dan -- most hedge funds recognize
and capitalize on some stocks going up while others go down to achieve
their superior performance.
Livermore (Lefever) and crew faced simpler opponents in simpler times.
JMHO Bob >>
I don't know about the times, but, I am one of those simpler opponents. I
also know there are at least a few opponents out there that are even simpler
than I. The point of my post was meant to be that arm chair traders like
myself should focus on trades with a high probability of success by trading
with the prevailing market trend. Granted, buy and sell decisions are made for
individual stocks and not the market. It appears that the system that I have
developed works best with stocks that move with the overall market trend. I
suppose I could develop a system that picks stocks that move counter to the
prevailing trend, however, I am not sure it is worth the trouble for an
amature trader. I am making money and by picking stocks that move with the
prevailing trend, I think I am picking from a much bigger pool of stocks. My
guess is that the proportion of stocks on the NYSE that have negative betas is
much less than 50 percent.
Thanks for your comments Bob and others. They help to keep me thinking and
re-examining my beliefs so that I can figure out what works for me.
Dan
Pocatello, ID USA
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