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<P>Dick Simmons wrote:
<BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>
<P> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Hi All,</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>To
all those interested in Gann, we have started up a chat group.</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>For
information on joining just E- mail me.</FONT></FONT> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Regards,</FONT></FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Dick.</FONT></FONT> </BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Aug 19 20:07:04 1998
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Posted-Date: Wed, 19 Aug 1998 21:08:55 -0500 (CDT)
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Date: Wed, 19 Aug 1998 21:02:17 -0500
From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
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Subject: Current Pick (short)
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I have trouble sending .gifs so I'll just give the
indicators when needed.
AMAT - Applied Materials - I shorted AMAT
immediately after they announced their earnings
shortfall. The short is based more on fundamental
reasons since the semi-conductor equipment mfging
is slowing. Look at earnings growth rate over the
next 2 quarters. Not very good. Plus the
international economy is struggling.
As far the technical analysis, not much to say. I
use the same things as usual JF, Pre-JF,
superposition stochastic, support & resistance and
watch volume.
I also watch the intra-day jockeying.
I always average on a short position. If it goes
against me I will average up. They always come
down on profit taking.
As far as AMAT I expect it to trade down Thursday
and Friday. Then if it rallies short the rallies.
If you get in and it goes against you just hang
on. The fundamental outlook is the prize you keep
your eye on. They play all sorts of games to get
people to cover.
One to watch also for a short is NWAC. If it
rallies into the 30s short it. NWAC is in a no-win
situation.
Harley
Don Hughes wrote:
>
> Harley:
>
> Please give the details on how you pick your stocks. I feel we can all learn something from each other.
>
> Don Hughes
>
> *********** REPLY SEPARATOR ***********
>
> On 8/19/98, at 9:06 AM, Harley Meyer wrote:
>
> >Maybe I will try to do that from time to time and give an explanation
> >why. My current short position is AMAT.
> >
> >If you want me to give details on why let me know and I can post then
> >later.
> >
> >Harley
> >
> >Roland Beauregard wrote:
> >>
> >> Harvey:
> >>
> >> My thoughts, exactly. Makes a lot of sense, [pun, intended].
> >>
> >> If there is a short specialist in the group who would be willing to post
> >> short picks as jim does longs, it may be helpful to a few. I'd do it myself
> >> but I'm just beginning to look at the short side.
> >>
> >> Roland
> >>
> >> Roland
> >>
> >> At 08:47 PM 8/18/98 -0700, you wrote:
> >> >Jim/
> >> >
> >> >Does it have to be either/or? Since there are always some stocks moving
> >> >up and some moving down, have you considered having both longs and
> >> >shorts, perhaps in accordance with a running average of the
> >> >Advance/Decline ratio?
> >> >
> >> >Harvey Pearce, Victoria, B.C., Canada
> >> >=====================================
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >Jim Greening wrote ...
> >> >
> >> >[SNIP]...
> >> >> I've been thinking about a tweak that uses the short term up
> >> >> trend channel within the intermediate term channel more then I am now.
> >> >> As long as the short term channel is moving up from the bottom of the
> >> >> intermediate term channel to the top, I'd replace positions as they
> >> >> are stopped out. Near the top of the intermediate term channel, I'd
> >> >> slow down on the replacements to one per week. When the short term
> >> >> channel has turned and is plainly down in the upper half of the
> >> >> intermediate term channel, I'd build cash with no replacements. If
> >> >> the short term channel is still heading down, but is near the bottom
> >> >> of the intermediate term channel, I'd start adding new long positions
> >> >> at one per week. After the short term channel has clearly turned back
> >> >> up, I'd add faster and replace as stopped. I'd repeat this cycle as
> >> >> long as the intermediate term up trend channel holds. When it is
> >> >> broken to the downside, I'd reverse to a mirror image strategy with
> >> >> short positions.
> >> >> I been thinking seriously about this strategy and intend to
> >> >> implement it with the short term channel clearly turns up or breaks
> >> >> through the bottom of the intermediate term channel. Of course I'll
> >> >> continue my current strategy of never risking more then 2% of my
> >> >> portfolio on any position (usually much less) and always using mental
> >> >> stops.
> >> >>
> >> >> Jim
> >> >======================================================
> >> >
> >>
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