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Thanks Guy and Steve for your reply's,
I will watch the open interest numbers on my Futures contracts.
Adam
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, August 17, 1998 12:07 AM
Subject: RE: Market discussion
>Adam
>
>Steve's reply basically handled it, but here's a brief example. Look at
the
>Wall Street Journal Futures page and look up Pork Bellies. I think the
next
>'big' month is Feb 99 with open interest of 2,500 contracts. Then take a
>look at the current, active month for Treasury Bonds or S&P futures, both
>for September. Look at the open interest there as well as the number of
>contracts being traded.
>
>For 'safety' in trading futures, you need a 'liquid' market to insure ease
>of entry and exit.
>
>Regards
>
>Guy
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>On Behalf Of Von Hef
>Sent: Sunday, August 16, 1998 6:18 AM
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re: Market discussion
>
> I appreciate everyone's stories, could you explain what you and Guy
>mean with the term "Thin Market" and how you technically determine
>if a market is "thin"?
> Thanks,
> Adam Hefner
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Saturday, August 15, 1998 10:21 PM
>Subject: Re: Market discussion
>
>
>>Guy,
>>
>>
>>When I first started trading, I developed a little moving
>>average oscillator and applied it to the cocoa market. I
>>watched as it posted 10 or 11 profitable trades in a row and
>>jumped in thinking I'd soon make "a pile" and retire. It
>>chugged along for about a week or so executing it's stop and
>>reverse signals. About two weeks had passed and my $3,000
>>investment had grown to over $18,000. I thought I was God's
>>gift to technical analysis. I was in a long position when the
>>market went limit against me and continued posting limit moves
>>for days afterwards. I escaped with a small loss and a big
>>lesson on "thin markets" and "large egos".
>>
>> As Al alluded to in an earlier post: "we need to learn that we
>>will never know" (I think that's what he said). When I stopped
>>thinking I had all the answers (during young and dumb "daze")
>>and realized I hardly knew anything (and still don't), things
>>got a lot easier. I'm still trying to figure out how the grains
>>are going to go up with world currencies going in the toilet.
>>Being an ex Motor City boy, I hope you noticed that giant move
>>off the bottom that the Canadian dollar posted last week. I
>>hear that Windsor casinos have been giving $150 Canadian in
>>exchange to $100 US for months. Looks like the market caught up
>>with their promotional idea since last April.
>>
>>Steve Karnish
>>CCT
>>----------
>>> From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Subject: RE: Market discussion
>>> Date: Saturday, August 15, 1998 5:00 PM
>>>
>>> Steve
>>>
>>> You're right about that long term definition. Short term is
>>when we get out
>>> on the close, medium term is when we exit the next morning and
>>long term is
>>> EOD the next day, or maybe later :).
>>>
>>> I once took an unbelievable bath in Wheat in the 1950s, I
>>think. Maybe the
>>> early 60s. Wheat was right at its support level (government
>>support price),
>>> so I rationalized that here was a price the government would
>>pay for the
>>> stuff, why would it drop below that number. Looked like
>>limited risk to me
>>> :) . Bought 50,000 bushels and watched it drop like a stone
>>right through
>>> the support price. Costly lesson for either a teenager or
>>someone in his
>>> early 20s.
>>>
>>> That reminds me of the 8 limit days down against me in
>>Bellies. That one
>>> taught me never to trade thin markets :) .
>>>
>>> Why do these lessons have to be so expensive???
>>>
>>> Regards
>>>
>>> Guy
>>>
>>>
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>[mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>>> On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>>> Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 6:07 PM
>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Subject: Re: Market discussion
>>>
>>> Guy,
>>>
>>> I agree with your European negative fundamentals. Every day
>>we
>>> gather more evidence. Today, the markets seemed to be
>>> anticipating some very negative news over the weekend. Buy
>>the
>>> rumor (bonds and dollars) and sell the rumor (currencies and
>>> equities). Those individuals holding short positions in the
>>> D-Mark and DJU/SPU could benefit during the next 48 hours.
>>> International Monetary Socialism is failing.
>>>
>>> I still like corn and wheat for the long term (although my
>>> technical approach alternates from long to short and back
>>> again...I've traded wheat 45 times this year). I usually get
>>in
>>> trouble when I analyze things long term. As a commodity
>>trader,
>>> I've always told people that long term is overnight.
>>>
>>> Steve Karnish
>>> CCT
>>>
>>> ----------
>>> > From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> > Subject: RE: Market discussion
>>> > Date: Friday, August 14, 1998 3:21 PM
>>> >
>>> > Steve
>>> >
>>> > I guess I'm not the only one who remembers 1955 in Michigan.
>>> The year I
>>> > graduated High School and started at the Univ. of Michigan.
>>> >
>>> > And while I agree with a lot of your comments, there are a
>>> couple of
>>> > negative fundamentals that might enter the equation. With
>>the
>>> Asian flu,
>>> > Russia taking a dump, the potential for this to push Europe
>>> into a
>>> > recession, your one missing element is demand. Granted
>>people
>>> have to eat,
>>> > but do they have the money to buy corn to feed to animals
>>and
>>> then eat meat
>>> > or do they stay with basic food stuffs in bad times?
>>> >
>>> > Guy
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > -----Original Message-----
>>> > From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
>>> > On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
>>> > Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 9:29 AM
>>> > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> > Subject: Re: Market discussion
>>> >
>>> > Dick,
>>> >
>>> > Since I started something and you offered an opinion on
>>> > grains...I'd like to make a case for a bottom in corn:
>>> >
>>> > 1. "Funky-mentals": big crop, crummy exports, limited
>>> storage,
>>> > large carry over, and my mother-in-law saying it's going to
>>> > $1.65.
>>> > Analysis: When your inlaws say go short...bet the farm.
>>> >
>>> > 2. "Cycles": We don't ever discuss cycles in this forum.
>>> (If
>>> > people want some interesting reading they can contact the
>>> > Institute for Cyclical Research in Pittsburgh, PA.) Corn
>>has
>>> a
>>> > dominate 63 month cycle and a secondary 50 month cycle. The
>>> > last time these two cycles coincided was in 1977. Check out
>>> the
>>> > charts and note the 3+ year rally that corn put together
>>after
>>> > the cycle low. The next time these two cycles "come
>>together"
>>> > is September 1998.
>>> > Analysis: Earthquakes and high tides are more abundant when
>>> the
>>> > planets line up in conjunction (just a bunch of big old
>>> cycles).
>>> > Always be aware of cycles and take notice when amplitudes
>>> pile
>>> > up on one another.
>>> >
>>> > 2a. "Sunspots": Boy, I'm going to catch some flack for
>>> > bringing in the weather into this discussion. But.......,
>>In
>>> > 1976, I was conducting hedging seminars with Michigan State
>>> > University and one of the professors (Black) had just
>>> completed
>>> > a correlation of sunspots to corn price/production report.
>>> The
>>> > given is that every 22 years there is a peak in sunspot
>>> > activity. The last two times this occurred was 1977 and
>>1955.
>>> > I'm old enough to have lived through and remember both
>>> summers.
>>> > 1955 is still the hottest summer I recall during my 30 years
>>> in
>>> > Michigan and in 1977, I was living in Denver and they had
>>over
>>> > 50 days of 90+ degrees (unheard of for the area). 1999 is
>>> > another peak year.
>>> > Analysis: Mama told me not to look into the sun, but I
>>said:
>>> > Mama, that's where the fun is. Rain makes grain, drought
>>> makes
>>> > money (if you're long).
>>> >
>>> > 3. "The techs": Near term: MFI hooking down and seeking
>>> > another bottom; Chande MO setting up for additional
>>> divergence;
>>> > RSI seeking support; Fast Sto headed down for another
>>bottom;
>>> %
>>> > of R on support; MACD(dema) is low, but posted a "nasty"
>>down
>>> > hook Long term: When the "near term" indicators turn on
>>> > support, (one or two weeks) this could be one of those "buys
>>> of
>>> > the millenium".
>>> > Analysis: When different indicators, (founded in different
>>> > math), make a coincidental bottoms ...you have a powerful
>>buy
>>> > signal.
>>> >
>>> > Opportunities to participate in absolute tops and absolute
>>> > bottoms only roll in every couple of years. This just
>>happens
>>> > to be a time in history when there are multiple choices
>>among
>>> > basic raw materials that are making 'bargain basement" lows.
>>> > Crude oil, certain currencies, the grains, and the metals
>>will
>>> > all be higher when inflation visits us again (remember
>>> > inflation?). Take advantage of these bottoms to position
>>long
>>> > positions.
>>> >
>>> > Steve Karnish
>>> > CCT
>>> >
>>> > ----------
>>> > > From: Dick Simmons <simmons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> > > Subject: Re: Market discussion
>>> > > Date: Sunday, August 09, 1998 6:39 PM
>>> > >
>>> > > Hi all,
>>> > > There should be more posts like this. I am sure that we
>>> would
>>> > get more out
>>> > > of this subject than some of the other discussions - lets
>>> keep
>>> > this one
>>> > > going.
>>> > > Grains I feel have some way to go both in price and time
>>> > before bottoming
>>> > > out.
>>> > > The Indexes are doing a counter trend move at the moment
>>> > before falling a
>>> > > lot further - you can only be short in this market.
>>> > > Regards,
>>> > > Dick.
>>> > > -----Original Message-----
>>> > > From: Al Taglavore <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > > To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > > Date: Saturday, 8 August 1998 3:48
>>> > > Subject: Re: WAG THE DOG
>>> > >
>>> > >
>>> > > >
>>> > > >
>>> > > >----------
>>> > > >> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > > >> To: MetaStock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> > > >> Subject: WAG THE DOG
>>> > > >> Date: Friday, August 07, 1998 10:23 AM
>>> > > >>
>>> > > >> Steve wrote ".......snip-snip
>>> > > >
>>> > > >> Now, is anyone willing to discuss a possible bottom in
>>> > grains, a
>>> > > >> possible top in the indices, the great volatility in
>>> cotton
>>> > and
>>> > > >> cocoa??
>>> > > >>
>>> > > >> Steve Karnish
>>> > > >> CCT
>>> > > >No, I do not have any comments as to the bottom in
>>grains,
>>> > but I would sure
>>> > > >like to read some comments about the DMark and upcoming
>>> Euro
>>> > and the 30Y
>>> > > >TBond. Like, if the market is coming down as it has,
>>where
>>> > is the money
>>> > > >going? Bonds are not rising, gold is stagnant, the CRB
>>is
>>> > falling, so
>>> > > >where, in anyone's opinion is the money going? Sure
>>would
>>> be
>>> > great to see
>>> > > >some posts concerning markets, trading, and making money.
>>> > > >
>>> > > >Al Taglavore
>>> > > >
>>
>
>
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