RE: Preparing for the worst??

["Guy Tann" <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

We've been stopped out for a while lately, which is unusual for our system.

I have been hoping for a 50 to 100 point move up as a place to institute
some short positions.  I'm looking at a downside support at around 1000,
with a potential decline to the 930-940 level, if our guesstimate of a
21-22% drop is correct.  I haven't made any determination as to whether this
is a short term correction and merely a slight burp before resuming the
trend up, or the possibility of a bigger move down.

I am leery about adding more gold positions, just due to the world problems
I see without any fairly immediate answers.  For instance, with Russia's
problems, metals are one of the few opportunities they have of raising any
hard currency.  Before I commit to any long term market direction, I want to
watch and see if Europe is dragged down into a recession.

Regards

Guy


-----Original Message-----
From:	owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of James Wolf
Sent:	Sunday, August 16, 1998 8:48 AM
To:	metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject:	RE: Preparing for the worst??


> We're looking for a 21-22% decline.  I'm just not sure whether or not this
> will be the whole move or the first leg of a longer move down.  We've
> already dropped approx. 10%.  Will be looking at some longer term numbers
> and maybe tea leaves :) .
>
> Regards
>
> Guy

I too am looking hard at where we might be going.
We are, as others have stated, at a strong support level.  *Historically*
when the market hit these levels it would bounce up from the 200 day MA and
head back up.
However, I am not yet ready to jump in.
My short terms outlook is that we could go up from here only to be turned
back for a re-test of the current support line.
I have been hesitant to buy either long or short the S&P at this point.
Are things really different this time?

I am seriously looking at the XAU.  I see a possible great buying
opportunity in intermediate size mining companies especially if the XAU
drops significantly from here.  It seems the US$ will have to, at the very
least, top out and start a significant reversal for this to happen.
Anyone else starting to watch this?

James Wolf