|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
If you don't have a trending market, then you have a trading market. Use
support and resistance and trade short term till a trend ensues. Some stocks
will trend one way or another all the time however. Tony
-----Original Message-----
From: Guy Tann <grtann@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Metastock <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, August 14, 1998 5:34 PM
Subject: Preparing for the worst??
>I wrote something about this the other night, but can't find a record of
>sending it or of receiving it back from the group. Probably sent it on to
a
>XXX site somewhere :) ,
>
>Anyway, with the 'depression' in Asia, the near collapse of the Russian
>market and the potential collapse in Europe, I wonder if anyone here in the
>group has done any experimenting with various indicators that appear to
work
>better in a bear or depression type market???
>
>I got the following missive from my dad last week, FWIW:
>
>"HI
>
> DOW DOWN 250 RECOVER TO CLOSE AT 112
>
> Asia in DEPRESSION wait for EUROPE to confirm if when they are hit the
>WORLD will
> also be in depression Could last several years I sincerly hope not
> Socialism will triumph
>
>LOVE DAD"
>
>I realized that it's been 20 or 30 years since I've had to deal with this
>type of market. It's hard to imagine making a living when the equity
market
>might move just 2% the entire year.
>
>So I pose the above question as something we might want to discuss. Not
>only which indicators might work best, but what vehicles would be best for
>investing, such as equities (type of industry that best weathers this type
>of downturn), options, futures (metals, food stuff, etc.), and whatever
else
>there may be.
>
>Indicators don't look promising. In additional, my latest issue of Road
and
>Track has more $200,000+ sedans in it than were being built in the
1920-1930
>era. Look how many of those survived, other than in collections. Look at
>housing! We visited my folks and my wife's family in March. I expect
>ridiculous prices here in California, but Toledo, OH for gosh sakes :) !!!
>There were several areas with houses from $500k to over $1mm. Granted you
>get more there than we do here in California, but come on, let's be
>realistic.
>
>Do we take our housing profits and sit on the sideline for a couple of
years
>and rent? It's hard to believe that my house will appreciate much more in
>value than it has. Our median prices are up over 25% from March, 97 to
>March, 98.
>
>Anyway, I need to start thinking about a defensive posture in trading.
Most
>of our stuff is short term anyway, so our basic trading strategy won't
>change, other than building in a negative bias similar to the positive bias
>we built in for this long bull move. I'd like to look at some long term
>ideas. With the market still up there, we should be able to take some
>longer term defensive positions without a lot of risk as a hedge against a
>multi year stagnation (you'll notice I don't use the word depression?).
>Granted, we can short 'stuff', buy OEX Puts (longer term) on recoveries,
>etc. I would still like to think we will get another run up which will
>enable me to take some reasonably priced Put positions, but I haven't seen
>the impetus for the run up.
>
>Any thoughts would be appreciated...
>
>Guy
>
>
|