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Steve
I guess I'm not the only one who remembers 1955 in Michigan. The year I
graduated High School and started at the Univ. of Michigan.
And while I agree with a lot of your comments, there are a couple of
negative fundamentals that might enter the equation. With the Asian flu,
Russia taking a dump, the potential for this to push Europe into a
recession, your one missing element is demand. Granted people have to eat,
but do they have the money to buy corn to feed to animals and then eat meat
or do they stay with basic food stuffs in bad times?
Guy
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:owner-metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Steve Karnish
Sent: Friday, August 14, 1998 9:29 AM
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Market discussion
Dick,
Since I started something and you offered an opinion on
grains...I'd like to make a case for a bottom in corn:
1. "Funky-mentals": big crop, crummy exports, limited storage,
large carry over, and my mother-in-law saying it's going to
$1.65.
Analysis: When your inlaws say go short...bet the farm.
2. "Cycles": We don't ever discuss cycles in this forum. (If
people want some interesting reading they can contact the
Institute for Cyclical Research in Pittsburgh, PA.) Corn has a
dominate 63 month cycle and a secondary 50 month cycle. The
last time these two cycles coincided was in 1977. Check out the
charts and note the 3+ year rally that corn put together after
the cycle low. The next time these two cycles "come together"
is September 1998.
Analysis: Earthquakes and high tides are more abundant when the
planets line up in conjunction (just a bunch of big old cycles).
Always be aware of cycles and take notice when amplitudes pile
up on one another.
2a. "Sunspots": Boy, I'm going to catch some flack for
bringing in the weather into this discussion. But......., In
1976, I was conducting hedging seminars with Michigan State
University and one of the professors (Black) had just completed
a correlation of sunspots to corn price/production report. The
given is that every 22 years there is a peak in sunspot
activity. The last two times this occurred was 1977 and 1955.
I'm old enough to have lived through and remember both summers.
1955 is still the hottest summer I recall during my 30 years in
Michigan and in 1977, I was living in Denver and they had over
50 days of 90+ degrees (unheard of for the area). 1999 is
another peak year.
Analysis: Mama told me not to look into the sun, but I said:
Mama, that's where the fun is. Rain makes grain, drought makes
money (if you're long).
3. "The techs": Near term: MFI hooking down and seeking
another bottom; Chande MO setting up for additional divergence;
RSI seeking support; Fast Sto headed down for another bottom; %
of R on support; MACD(dema) is low, but posted a "nasty" down
hook Long term: When the "near term" indicators turn on
support, (one or two weeks) this could be one of those "buys of
the millenium".
Analysis: When different indicators, (founded in different
math), make a coincidental bottoms ...you have a powerful buy
signal.
Opportunities to participate in absolute tops and absolute
bottoms only roll in every couple of years. This just happens
to be a time in history when there are multiple choices among
basic raw materials that are making 'bargain basement" lows.
Crude oil, certain currencies, the grains, and the metals will
all be higher when inflation visits us again (remember
inflation?). Take advantage of these bottoms to position long
positions.
Steve Karnish
CCT
----------
> From: Dick Simmons <simmons@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Market discussion
> Date: Sunday, August 09, 1998 6:39 PM
>
> Hi all,
> There should be more posts like this. I am sure that we would
get more out
> of this subject than some of the other discussions - lets keep
this one
> going.
> Grains I feel have some way to go both in price and time
before bottoming
> out.
> The Indexes are doing a counter trend move at the moment
before falling a
> lot further - you can only be short in this market.
> Regards,
> Dick.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Al Taglavore <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Saturday, 8 August 1998 3:48
> Subject: Re: WAG THE DOG
>
>
> >
> >
> >----------
> >> From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> To: MetaStock-List <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Subject: WAG THE DOG
> >> Date: Friday, August 07, 1998 10:23 AM
> >>
> >> Steve wrote ".......snip-snip
> >
> >> Now, is anyone willing to discuss a possible bottom in
grains, a
> >> possible top in the indices, the great volatility in cotton
and
> >> cocoa??
> >>
> >> Steve Karnish
> >> CCT
> >No, I do not have any comments as to the bottom in grains,
but I would sure
> >like to read some comments about the DMark and upcoming Euro
and the 30Y
> >TBond. Like, if the market is coming down as it has, where
is the money
> >going? Bonds are not rising, gold is stagnant, the CRB is
falling, so
> >where, in anyone's opinion is the money going? Sure would be
great to see
> >some posts concerning markets, trading, and making money.
> >
> >Al Taglavore
> >
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