Weekly Pick

["Jim Greening" <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

All,
     I guess we need weeks like this to remind us that there are risks
to investing, but up weeks are more fun.  My portfolio was down about
6% for the week and I was stopped out of EGRP.  That leaves me with
BAR, CELL, EGGS, MLT, SCH, SORC stock along with LEAP calls on CPQ and
a little over 40% cash.  I also relearned a lesson on not to deviate
from my strategy.  If I had followed my strategy of only entering one
new position a week, I'd still be about 60% cash and would have only
been a little over 2% for the week.  Instead, I got in a hurry and
entered multiple positions at once.  The major reason I do these
weekly picks is to clarify my thinking and to reinforce lessons
learned.  Maybe it will work one of these days <G>.
     No picks this week.  I don't like what I'm seeing in the charts
of my indices.  All of them are in Intermediate Term Up Trend Channels
(ITUTCs) except the Russell 2000 which broke out of the bottom of its
ITUTC in mid-June but is still in a Long Term Up trend Channel.  Last
week, all were also in Short Term Up Trend Channels (STUTCs) within
their longer term channels and were heading for the top of the longer
term channels.  This week all of them broke through the bottom of
their STUTCs on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday and are heading sharply
down towards the bottom of the longer term channels.  Now I think that
this is just a correction and the most likely scenario is that the
bottom of the longer term channels will hold.  However, the drop is
steep and their is always a chance that the longer term channels won't
hold.  Since I was impatient the last two weeks, I'm going to
compensate by tightening the stops on my open positions and waiting to
see what happens before entering any new positions <G>.
     There are some very interesting potential long positions on my
watch list.  If we do get a bounce off the bottom of the indices
channels during the week, I'll post a midweek pick.
     I'll send a DJI.GIF chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to
everyone on my email list.  If you aren't on the list and want on,
just yell.

Jim