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I don't think anyone has made a fundamentally sound arguement for why using
Fib parameters works. But I agree, they are uncanny. There's also another
set called Lucas numbers that possesses the same "golden ratio"
characteristic. I think series begins with 2, 1, 3, 4, 7, 11, 18, 29, 47,
76, 123, 199, etc.
cheers,
Rick
PS. Congrats on the EGGS call Jim!
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, July 18, 1998 12:28 PM
Subject: Re: Tema
>Steve,
> I use Fibonacci numbers in a lot of my system tests. I don't
>know why, but they seem to work better.
>
>Jim
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Steve Karnish <kernish@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Friday, July 17, 1998 8:20 PM
>Subject: Re: Tema
>
>
>>Jim,
>>I noticed in your advice to Bill that you used the numbers: 21,
>>34, 55. What part does Fibonacci numbers play in your overall
>>anlaysis? Is anyone out there going beyond the arcs,
>>retracements, and period tools that MS provides?
>>Steve Karnish
>>CCT
>>
>>----------
>>> From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> Subject: Re: Tema
>>> Date: Friday, July 17, 1998 1:04 PM
>>>
>>> Bill,
>>> That's right, what you have is a system test formula.
>>The
>>> explorer can't optimize, where the system tester can. To use
>>the
>>> formula in the Explorer, you have to replace opt2. Start out
>>using
>>> 21, then you can try the other values of 34 or 55 to see which
>>you
>>> like best. In fact you can experiment with any number you
>>want.
>>>
>>> Jim
>>> -----Original Message-----
>>> From: Bill G Bolumen <BOLUMENB@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> Date: Thursday, July 16, 1998 6:24 PM
>>> Subject: Re: Tema
>>>
>>>
>>> >Jim,
>>> >I am not good at all with formulas and I was trying to copy
>>your
>>> Short
>>> >Formula into explorer and it says that "optimization
>>variables are
>>> not
>>> >allowed in this type of formula"
>>> >What else do I need to other than just inputting the short
>>formula
>>> into the
>>> >explorer?
>>> >Thanks,
>>> >Bill
>>> >
>>> >----------
>>> >> From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>> >> Subject: Re: Tema
>>> >> Date: Wednesday, July 15, 1998 6:54 PM
>>> >>
>>> >> CMA,
>>> >> I'll copy an old post below.
>>> >>
>>> >> Jim
>>> >> --------------------------------------
>>> >> The Rsquared, S/C,MFI test is based on linear
>>regression.
>>> >> RSquared is a function that measures how strong a data
>>array of
>>> given
>>> >> length is trending. A return of one correlates to a very
>>strong
>>> trend
>>> >> in either direction. A return of zero correlates to no
>>trend. I'm
>>> >> using it to tell me when there is no trend over the last 21
>>days,
>>> or
>>> >> that rsquared(C,21) is less than 0.15. Now that we have no
>>trend,
>>> we
>>> >> would expect one to start in the next 5 to 13 days. If one
>>does
>>> start
>>> >> we want to determine the direction and get in early.
>>Therefore
>>> >> Rsquared is used as a trigger, using it as an ALERT
>>function. With
>>> >> the ALERT given, if all the rest of the conditions are met
>>any time
>>> >> within a 13 day period, the buy signal will be generated.
>>I'm then
>>> >> using S/C and MFI to determine trend start and direction.
>>> >> S/C is nothing more than the normalized 34 day
>>LinRegSlope of
>>> the
>>> >> close. I normalize it by dividing it by the close so
>>charts are
>>> more
>>> >> directly comparable. I also multiply by 10000 just to get
>>numbers
>>> >> between 0 and a few hundred. Finally I apply Tema
>>smoothing to get
>>> a
>>> >> smoother plot. The theory is that if S/C is rising then a
>>uptrend
>>> is
>>> >> in progress. If S/C is falling a down trend is in
>>progress. I
>>> check
>>> >> this by making sure that tema(S/C) is larger than an
>>optimized
>>> value
>>> >> (opt1) and is rising. I use the function HHV(X,5) =
>>HHV(X,13) to
>>> >> check. This is just a quick way to determine if the most
>>reason
>>> >> values of X have been rising. If the condition is met,
>>then S/C is
>>> >> rising. Similarly if it met the condition LLV(X,5) =
>>LLV(C,13) it
>>> >> would be falling.
>>> >> I double check the result by also making sure that MFI
>>is also
>>> >> rising. When all conditions are met within 13 days of the
>>alert,
>>> we
>>> >> get a buy signal. The converse is true for a sell signal.
>>Since
>>> the
>>> >> market is biased upwards, I add two additional checks for
>>the
>>> short -
>>> >> MFI less then 0 and the 55 day variable moving average
>>falling. I
>>> >> close the positions when the trend has stopped. For the
>>long
>>> position
>>> >> I check that the Tema(MFI) is below 0, the Tema(S/C) is
>>below opt 1
>>> >> and a 55 day exp moving average is falling. Short
>>positions tend
>>> to
>>> >> move faster, so I only look the 144 day moving aver to
>>begin rising
>>> to
>>> >> close that position. The complete test follows:
>>> >>
>>> >> ENTER LONG:
>>> >> Alert(RSquared(C,21) < 0.15,13) AND
>>> >> Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34) > opt1 AND
>>> >> HHV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),5) =
>>> >> HHV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),13) AND
>>> >> HHV(Tema(MFI(55),55),5) = HHV(Tema(MFI(55),55),13)
>>> >>
>>> >> CLOSE LONG:
>>> >>
>>> >> Tema(MFI(55),55) - 50 < 0 AND
>>> >> Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34) < opt1 AND
>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),5) =
>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),13) AND
>>> >> LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),5) = LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),13)
>>> >>
>>> >> ENTER SHORT
>>> >>
>>> >> Alert(RSquared(C,21) < 0.15,13) AND
>>> >> Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34) < opt2 AND
>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),5) =
>>> >> LLV(Tema(10000*LinRegSlope(C,34)/C,34),13) AND
>>> >> LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),5) = LLV(Tema(MFI(55),55),13) AND
>>> >> Tema(MFI(55),55) - 50 < 0 AND
>>> >> LLV(Mov(C,55,VAR),5) = LLV(Mov(C,55,VAR),13)
>>> >>
>>> >> CLOSE SHORT
>>> >>
>>> >> HHV(Mov(C,55,VAR),5) = HHV(Mov(C,55,VAR),13) AND
>>> >> Tema(MFI(55),55) - 50 > 0
>>> >>
>>> >> OPTIMIZATION:
>>> >>
>>> >> OPT1: Min=-34 Max=-8 Step=13
>>> >> OPT2: Min=-55 Max=-21 Step=34
>>> >>
>>> >> -----Original Message-----
>>> >> From: amc amc <cma6@xxxxxxxxx>
>>> >> To: metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>>> >> Date: Wednesday, July 15, 1998 11:09 AM
>>> >> Subject: Tema
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>> >> >
>>> >> >To Jim Greening:Don't know if you have covered this, but
>>can you
>>> >> >describe Tema S/C and Tema MFI (money flow index?),
>>howconstructed
>>> >> >and how interpreted. Thanks, CMA
>>> >> >
>>> >> >
>>> >> >
>>> >> >_________________________________________________________
>>> >> >DO YOU YAHOO!?
>>> >> >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com
>>> >> >
>>> >>
>>> >>
>>>
>>>
>
>
>
>
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