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Adrian,
I think you are right that my study is flawed. The data doesnt show what I
thought it did. Thanks for pointing out my mistake.
The Allords index
is indeed rising all the time - interestingly it follows an exponential
curve quite closely over the last 100 years. For this reason we shouldnt be
too surprised that the absolute numbers are now getting bigger quite fast.
Using a logarithmic scale we see a straight line increase which is much
more realistic.
Originally I did look at the changes in % terms, and in answer to your
question about
the % rise I attach two other graphs. These show only one component of the
price patterns: the 'uptrend' zigs (I define 'uptrend' as a unit of a rise
and fall where the second low is higher than the first). You can see that
the percentage of each rise has been decreasing, and the rise time has also
been decreasing over the period of the study.
Looking at the %rate of change of each of these components
shows only a slight increase in the %fall ROC but none in the %rise ROC.
Which,
I think, was your point.
Regards
Chris
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Adrian Pitt wrote:
Your 50 point zig zag study is flawed if i am not mistaken. You need
to redo your calculations on a % basis. Of course the swings will be
bigger now than in 1982...the index has increased five fold. I would
be interested to see if your conlcusion still remains the same..I
would hazard a guess that it will not.
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