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Richard,
Sorry for my previous hasty response to your note. I didn't read it
carefully enough. You're asking really good questions. Actually, I don't
have complete answers to all of them yet.
When you say that you have not seen outstanding results is this because
you've never heard of someone testing Elder's specific description of his
concept or because you know of someone who did and the results were not
outstanding?
I don't doubt that if one tested Elder's specific description of Triple
Screen it may not produce "outstanding results". I certainly would not
trade Elder's specific description of Triple Screen.
Elder says that "trades that pass the Triple Screen test have a higher
degree of profitability." I think this isn't very well stated. The way
that I would put it is this: "trades that pass some well-thought-through
instantiation of Elder's multi-period concept have a higher probability of
success."
The graphic I provided earlier today with a description of indicator parms
is an analog of what I'm doing intra-day that reflects my best effort so far
to develop the indicators for a concrete instantiation of Elder's concept.
I've been spending alot of time pouring over historical data visually to
ensure that I understand how a system based on this concept would work.
I've reviewed thousands and thousands of ripple bars with associated wave
and tide bars and indicators (my ripple bar is one minute). My visual
analysis continually reinforces my belief in the value of the core Elder
conceptual framework for making profitable trades and for avoiding bad or
difficult trades. I'm just about to the place where I can express the rules
in structured english. But, of course, this is still not the same as a real
system test. The confidence I have in its value is not diminished by the
fact that I've been trading my instantiation of Elder's concept with some
not insignificant results.
But it would be very useful to me to have others look at it for different
periods (my focus is the 1 minute ripple bar, I don't have time to focus on
a daily ripple bar also), years, indices, and specific stock issues.
Are there flaws in the essential concept? Can one derive higher period
indicator values from lower period data merely by changing parm values? (I
take it that Paul Chivers work on this question led him to say NO to this
question.) Are there better indicators than Stoch, MACD, and ROC that I
should be using? Does my instantiation work well with specific issues
(MSFT, IBM, INTC, etc., etc., etc.)? Etc.? Etc.? Etc.?
If I already had real system test results or didn't think it valuable to get
feedback on these feeble initial thoughts why would I make these posts? <G>
Steven Buss
Walnut Creek, CA
sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
-----Original Message-----
From: Richard Estes <restes@xxxxxxxxx>
To: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; John E Bush
<jb90036@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, January 19, 1998 7:13 PM
Subject: Re: A Difference with Elder...
>I have heard real doubts that he trades at all. This doesn't stop him from
>making valid observations. But how does his systems test? I have never seen
>outstanding results.
>Richard Estes
>-----Original Message-----
>From: John E Bush <jb90036@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Monday, January 19, 1998 12:52 PM
>Subject: Re: A Difference with Elder...
>
>
>>At 10:40 AM 01/19/98 +0000, you wrote:
>>>I've been talking up Elder so much here that I thought I should make it
>>>clear that I don't really like one part of his "Triple Screen Trading
>>>System" described in "Trading for a Living".
>>>
>>>
>>This book is about 5 years old now; I wonder if Elder has updated, refined
>>or maybe even abandoned this system.
>>
>> john ( MS 5.11 & DOS, TechniFilter Plus 7.1.5 )
>>
>
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