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Dick,
Thanks for the kind words. I've tried for years to set up a
system I understand and can follow, but I do admit to constant
tweaking .
My system includes Telescan Prosearches using both fundamental
and technical criteria and an eyeball test on the resulting stock
charts for the initial screens to admit stocks to my database. I try
to keep my stock database to under 200 stocks. I run the Telescan
searches weekly and prune my database periodically. I usually only
add a few stocks each week. After I download the historical stock
data on new stocks to MetaStock, I run my MetaStock profit system test
comparison that I've described before to see which test works best and
change the chart indicators to reflect the best test. If none of the
tests show at least a 100% gain on 1500 days of test data, I delete
that stock from the database.
I run weekly explorations on the stocks in my database and when I
like one of the stocks that come up in the exploration, I move it to
my watch list. I look at charts of my open positions and my watch
lists every day. When I have buying power in my account and am sure
of the market direction, I'll add a new position weekly in the
direction of the intermediate market trend.
I use mostly trend channel analysis for my final selections since
over the years I've found that works best for me. When the market is
in an intermediate term up trend, I like to open long positions after
a stock has bounced off the bottom of an Intermediate Term Up Trend
Channel (ITUTC) and broken a short term down trend channel. A
MetaStock buy signal is nice, but not required. I'll also buy LEAP
calls for leverage. Since I'm frequently wrong, I like to limit my
losses by getting in close to the bottom of the ITUTC and setting my
stops just under the channel. If the channel is wide enough, I'll
also set a target at the top of the channel. Of course, I move the
stops and targets up as the stock progresses along the channel.
One final comment is on portfolio management. I limit each new
position to no more then 10% of my portfolio. I try to keep every
position in different high ranked industry groups, but may have two in
the same group from time to time. If the bond market looks good to me
compared to the stock market, I'll occasionally take a bond position
through bond mutual funds.
Sorry for being so wordy, but I did want to summarize my strategy
since I haven't done that in a long time.
Now to the point - finally . Since the first part of the
system I've described above is a screen based on both fundamental and
technical criteria, I don't agree that MU has terrible fundamentals.
I explained why in a separate post to Dave and asked him to be more
explicit. It's always good to exchange ideas on our investment
methodology and stock selections. I've found that I'm not too old to
learn something new .
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Dick
To: Metstock List
Date: Saturday, January 10, 1998 7:42 PM
Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
>Hi Dave,
>
>I've sent my "warnings" to Jim about bearish fundamentals in the
past, only
>to have him prove (yet) again, that the trend is his friend, while I
>bearishly eyed his weekly pick take off like a homesick angel.
>
>The only thing I can figure is it's at the bottom of it's trend for a
>reason, and that's pretty well known by everyone....and when the
sellers are
>all gone....well, you get the picture.
>
>I've been trying to emulate Jim's methods on a trial basis, but the
market
>has been so bad, and all.........but have you noticed he's one of the
few
>that never seems stressed out on this board ?
>
>All by itself, that's enough reason for me to admire his methods and
to
>learn as much as I can from them.
>
>Dick
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Dave Zawicki
>To: Jim Greening
>Cc: Jim Barone ; Jerry Medlin
;
>Jeff Heebner ; Jeff F. Brady
>; JBois ; James H.
Shaddy
>; James A. Deni ; jack
velte
>; J. Stephen Jones ; J. F.
DeWilder
>; J. Carlos ;
Iris
>Brown ; Hugo Noomen ;
Hugh
>Valliant ; Herb Jorgensen
;
>Herb Carter ; Harley D Meyer
;
>Guy Gordon ; Gunter ;
greatsigns
>; GARY MONTGOMERY
;
>Gary Dahlquist ; Frank B. Gaylord
;
>Francois Martin ; fletch ;
Erika
>Toth Fluke ; Ed Schwab
>; Ed Hanley ; Ed
Hancock
>; Drew Hawkins ; doug
>schneider ; Don Hodges
;
>Doc Amin ; Dick Jurgens ; Dick
>; Denis Trover ; David
Castley
>; Dave Van de Laar
; D J
>Hadley ; Craig Camp ; Cliff Frish
>; Claude Baruch ;
Christopher J.
>Lewis ; Christian Baude ;
Carole
>Frohardt ; Carlos D. Thomason
;
>Bob Fulks ; Bill Wright ; Bill
Saxon
>; Bill Ford ; bill
bolumen
>; Bill ; Bart Waller
>; Al Dharsee ; achmad zaky
>; Jeffrey L. Grover
>Date: Saturday, January 10, 1998 12:09 PM
>Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
>
>
>>Jim,
>>
>> I want to thank you for continuing to make these selections every
week. I
>>understand they are based on technical analysis, but I can't help
looking
>at the
>>fundamentals of the company also when making a selection. MU is a
terrible
>>selection (on a fundamental basis) and worth south of $10 during the
next
>>contraction. Be careful and keep those stops close.
>>
>>----
>>Dave Zawicki
>
>
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