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I am in agreement with you, Dr. Roffey. According to Curtis Arnold, the
rising wedge is a five-point pattern. In one formed during an uptrend,
there are two points on the demand line and three points on the supply
line. In the case of one formed during a downtrend, there are three points
on the demand line and a minimum of two points on the supply line. In both
instances, the important point to remember is that the supply and demand
trend line of the pattern must converge.
On this pattern, Edwards and Magee said: There is no evident barrier of
supply to be vaulted but a gradual petering out of investment interest.
Prices advance but each new wave of interest is feebler than the last.
Finally demand fails entirely and the trend reverses. Thus a rising wedge
typifies a situation which is growing progressively weaker in a technical
sense.
Curtis Arnold did 10 years of reserch on chart patterns, and found the
probability of success, or percent of profitability on rising wedge (on
uptrend) to be 100%. However, the sample size is very small. As for
rising wedge on a downtrend, the percentage of profitability is 37.5%.
Curtis Arnold did his research on commodity, not on stocks. So using this
information carefully.
Ed Poon
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