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Great stuff Harley......Maybe that's why missing or pre-announcing lower
earnings by as little as 1 cent, causes such violent selloffs ? (i.e. The
street knows that in order to miss, the quarter must have gone wrong beyond
all expectations ?)
Almost makes me want to befriend an analyst. <g>
-----Original Message-----
From: Harley Meyer <meyer@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: money4u@xxxxxxxxx <money4u@xxxxxxxxx>
Cc: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Metastock
list <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Randy Burkhardt @ Home
<randy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, December 04, 1997 6:07 AM
Subject: Re: stocks:news
>James,
>I think the bigger question is what's a whisper number? I had spent some
>time with a researcher for a major brokerage house. We went to visit a
>company they brought public. We spoke with the CFO. In the conversation
>the two had, they discussed earnings for the quarter and what the
>researches was going to write in his report. The researcher and the CFO
>agreed on a number that the analysts would report. The analysts reminded
>the CFO that if he shows that earnings growth was moving too fast and
>for some reason they missed a quarter then the NASDAQ would punish them.
>(Drop in stock price.) So the analyst was helping the CFO through the
>process. When the analyst and I walked out of the meeting he told me
>that the company had actually made about $1/share but they were going to
>only report 50 cents/share. Not that they were being dishonest but this
>gave the CFO certain latitude on how the company would take write offs
>and depreciation. The point that I am trying to make is that the whisper
>number is not just a number but is a combination of things. Growth trend
>in earnings as well as how the CFO (company- companies management) does
>their accounting (allocates their recourses) and the analysts' personal
>relationship with the company.
>
>Now this is my observation of a whisper number. Some one else may have a
>different view.
>
>Harley
>James Charles wrote:
>
>> Hi Guys,
>>
>> Can you recommend a book you found useful on how to trade on
>> anticipated
>> news? By that I mean, how to better evaluate changes in whisper
>> numbers, analyst sentiment, etc.
>>
>> Although technicals are the backbone of our trading, it's profitable
>> to
>> augment with other skills.
>>
>> Best wishes,
>>
>> James
>>
>>
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------
>>
>> James Charles <money4u@xxxxxxxxx>
>> manager
>> J&L Business Services
>>
>> James Charles
>> manager <money4u@xxxxxxxxx>
>> J&L Business Services
>> 5 Dorset Road Work: (609)489-0183
>> Cherry Hill Fax: call first
>> NJ Netscape Conference Address
>> 08003 Netscape Conference DLS Server
>> USA
>> Additional Information:
>> Last Name Charles
>> First Name James
>> Version 2.1
>
>
>
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