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-----Original Message-----
From: Greatelto@xxxxxxx <Greatelto@xxxxxxx>
To: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx <altag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>; ancliff@xxxxxxxxxxxx
<ancliff@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, November 20, 1997 3:25 PM
Subject: Get Invested....Stay Invested
>Al recently wrote in response to Cliff Roffey....
>
>>3. "Problem. Yes we are to have a correction."
> Has this not been so since the beginning of time? I have a chart US
>stock market since 1928 hanging in my office. I look and see the direction
>is up.
>
>I see that missing the move is more costly than not being in the markets. <
>
>How right you are, Al. It seems everybody is trying to predict or
>second-guess the various markets. I say "get invested and always stay
>invested."
Only if you pick the right stocks at the right time and time your exit. If
you had bought IBM at its 1987 high, it took 10 years to get even. During
that time you would have expericenced a 75 % drawdown on capital. If you
think the guy was right, next you go to darts. We don't buy the dow or
sp500. We buy stocks of all flavors.
>
>Using figures recently issued by a popular and well know money manager,
>history shows there is no wrong time to make an investment in the stock
>market. If a person started in 1987 and had made a $10,000 investment on
the
>market high in each of the past ten years, he would have $206,703. If he
>made that same $10,000 investment each year on the market lows, he would
have
>$263,480. Not that much difference overall.
If you had bought IBM at its 1987 high, it took 10 years to get even. During
that time you would have expericenced a 75 % drawdown on capital. If you
think the guy was right, next you go to darts. We don't buy the dow or
sp500. We buy stocks of all flavors. I wonder why he didn't talk about
treasury bills beating the sp500 from 1970-1994, it took you that long to
get even.
>
>Being out of the market is the biggest risk.....which is where people
>generally are when trying to predict the market's next move. I think it is
>very ironic.
No not at all. Stocks are risky. I agree that we should worry about timing
the stocks we are in , not the market. But buy and hold can be suidice.
>
>Jerry
I would rather see a chart, then opinion.
Richard Estes
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