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I didn't actually say that I was in the Bull camp. I just don't want to
risk being in the bear camp and being wrong. But you know, the Dow never
did actually make it up 175 points. Maybe tomorrow. Clive Roffey put it
well in his last note to the list. The S&P 100 and 500 did meet the
criteria however: i.e. beating the 11/5/97 high.
Steven Buss
Walnut Creek, CA
sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, November 17, 1997 6:07 PM
Subject: Re: Just Another 175 Points Up...
Steven,
Welcome back to the Bull camp, let me know when you turn Bearish again
<G>.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Metstock List
<metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, November 17, 1997 6:13 AM
Subject: Re: Just Another 175 Points Up...
>What a difference a day makes...
>
>It's 3am in California. I've been watching the Nasdaq 100 1050 level.
>Realtime Globex shows the bid at exactly 1050.
>
>And the OEX Master is back...And he's bullish...Uggggh.
>
>Am I a groupie or what...
>
>So, Jim, what were those hot stocks you had going up again? <G>
>
>Steven Buss
>Walnut Creek, CA
>sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>; Metstock List
><metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Sunday, November 16, 1997 6:55 PM
>Subject: Re: Just Another 175 Points Up...
>
>
>Steven,
> Thanks for your thoughts. I sure hope we get those 175 points <G>.
>
>Jim
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: Metstock List <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Saturday, November 15, 1997 10:14 PM
>Subject: Just Another 175 Points Up...
>
>
>>What would it take for me to become bullish. Just another 175 points
up...
>>
>>I wasn't going to write all this out until I got Jim Greening's note
today.
>>I appreciate Jim's sharing and wanted to reciprocate. More members
>>of this list need to do more! This one's for Jim.
>>
>>I'm mostly bearish (on the market in general, but not on some individual
>>stocks), but success means that one must be able to turn on a dime. I've
>>summarized below what it would take for me to become bullish in terms of
>the
>>Dow. The same kind of analysis could be performed on other major indices.
>>
>>The rebound at 7349.99 on 10/13/97 may be viewed as technical (and
magical)
>>only since many said that the 7350 mark was a major milestone. Still, the
>>magical low on 10/13/97 at 7349.99 is lower than the 10/31/97 low at
>>7352.69, albeit
>>only marginally. Seems to me that any bull would have felt better going
>>into the weekend with the Dow closing at least above 7580.85 (the low way
>>back on 9/11/97) let alone above a great many other important points. It
>>didn't do that (yet?). The Dow is gyrating right at its 200 day simple
ma.
>
>>It seems to me that it's important to the bullish case that it move
>>decisively above this ma and I would think rather soon.
>>
>>Too many people look at this simple indicator.
>>
>>
>>For the current rally to continue it needs to move higher than the mark
set
>>on 11/5/97 before the next downward move. The things that need to happen
>>are all basic things: higher highs and higher lows and staying above the
>>200 ma.
>>
>>One other note. Latest (11/17/97) IBD front page had a note that there
was
>>a $1.1B outflow of funds from mutual funds for the week ended 11/12/97.
>>This
>>was after a inflow of 2.84B in funds the prior week.
>>
>>If this wasn't enough, if you tilt your head to the left and squint just
>>right, it's even possible to imagine 2 variations of a DJIA Head and
>>Shoulders top emerging: 1) left shoulder=> mid-June 97, head=> August 1,
>>right shoulder=> early-October. 2) left shoulder=> mid-June 97,
>>double-head=> August-October 1, right shoulder=> NOW.
>>
>>Boy am I crabby. <G>
>>
>>I've posted a Dow chart showing that a trend line from late 1994 through
>the
>>present was broken on "gray Monday" and that the Dow is now lower than
that
>>trend line.
>>
>>ftp://emmetropia.com/pub/webm32aa/DJIA1994-1997.gif
>>
>>Note1: the Dow Bars are daily Candlevolume bars. Don't know if this
>>is "valid" but it makes the case that I'm trying to make better than the
>>standard
>>approach <G>
>>
>>Note2: The same kind of bearish rising wedge that Clive Roffey described
>as
>>beginning from the April 1997 low on the Dow can now be drawn in from late
>>1994.
>>
>>(This is the first time I've used the public FTP storage on my new hosting
>>service. Someone let me know if it works.)
>>
>>I've posted another-zoomed-in chart of the same Dow chart. The MA lines
>are
>>50 and 200 days, 2 simple and 2 volume adjusted.
>>
>> ftp://emmetropia.com/pub/webm32aa/DJIA97-11-14.gif
>>
>> If you move up into the parent directory, you'll find those few
>>Dow-Boo! .gifs that I sent out that everyone enjoyed so much. <G>
>>
>>If the Dow doesn't move higher than its previous (11/5/97) high (this
>>next week?) but instead falls more decisively below its 200 day ma, I
would
>>think that bigger players will be moving even more decisively to get
>>out...And if it doesn't move above that 11/5/97 high before moving down,
>>will the 7349.99 hold again. Hard to imagine...And then what? 7100?
>>
>>Pure speculation: S&P500 futures trading limit down early this next
>>week before that 11/5/97 high is beaten. The bull nightmare: S&P Futures
>>trading limit down early Monday morning 11/17/97.
>>
>>So, what would it take to make me near term bullish? A close above the
>>11/5/97 high before the next move down! Just another 175 points up.
>>
>>In the present market context, I don't think there's a substitute for
>>reading through the first few chapters of any TA introductory text (Pring,
>>Murphy, Schwager (my favorite), E&M) to the chapter on topping patterns
and
>>then getting out the old smoking jacket. <G>
>>
>>Steven Buss
>>Walnut Creek, CA
>>sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>>
>
>
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