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Steven,
Thanks for your thoughts. I sure hope we get those 175 points <G>.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Metstock List <metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, November 15, 1997 10:14 PM
Subject: Just Another 175 Points Up...
>What would it take for me to become bullish. Just another 175 points up...
>
>I wasn't going to write all this out until I got Jim Greening's note today.
>I appreciate Jim's sharing and wanted to reciprocate. More members
>of this list need to do more! This one's for Jim.
>
>I'm mostly bearish (on the market in general, but not on some individual
>stocks), but success means that one must be able to turn on a dime. I've
>summarized below what it would take for me to become bullish in terms of the
>Dow. The same kind of analysis could be performed on other major indices.
>
>The rebound at 7349.99 on 10/13/97 may be viewed as technical (and magical)
>only since many said that the 7350 mark was a major milestone. Still, the
>magical low on 10/13/97 at 7349.99 is lower than the 10/31/97 low at
>7352.69, albeit
>only marginally. Seems to me that any bull would have felt better going
>into the weekend with the Dow closing at least above 7580.85 (the low way
>back on 9/11/97) let alone above a great many other important points. It
>didn't do that (yet?). The Dow is gyrating right at its 200 day simple ma.
>It seems to me that it's important to the bullish case that it move
>decisively above this ma and I would think rather soon.
>
>Too many people look at this simple indicator.
>
>
>For the current rally to continue it needs to move higher than the mark set
>on 11/5/97 before the next downward move. The things that need to happen
>are all basic things: higher highs and higher lows and staying above the
>200 ma.
>
>One other note. Latest (11/17/97) IBD front page had a note that there was
>a $1.1B outflow of funds from mutual funds for the week ended 11/12/97.
>This
>was after a inflow of 2.84B in funds the prior week.
>
>If this wasn't enough, if you tilt your head to the left and squint just
>right, it's even possible to imagine 2 variations of a DJIA Head and
>Shoulders top emerging: 1) left shoulder=> mid-June 97, head=> August 1,
>right shoulder=> early-October. 2) left shoulder=> mid-June 97,
>double-head=> August-October 1, right shoulder=> NOW.
>
>Boy am I crabby. <G>
>
>I've posted a Dow chart showing that a trend line from late 1994 through the
>present was broken on "gray Monday" and that the Dow is now lower than that
>trend line.
>
>ftp://emmetropia.com/pub/webm32aa/DJIA1994-1997.gif
>
>Note1: the Dow Bars are daily Candlevolume bars. Don't know if this
>is "valid" but it makes the case that I'm trying to make better than the
>standard
>approach <G>
>
>Note2: The same kind of bearish rising wedge that Clive Roffey described as
>beginning from the April 1997 low on the Dow can now be drawn in from late
>1994.
>
>(This is the first time I've used the public FTP storage on my new hosting
>service. Someone let me know if it works.)
>
>I've posted another-zoomed-in chart of the same Dow chart. The MA lines are
>50 and 200 days, 2 simple and 2 volume adjusted.
>
> ftp://emmetropia.com/pub/webm32aa/DJIA97-11-14.gif
>
> If you move up into the parent directory, you'll find those few
>Dow-Boo! .gifs that I sent out that everyone enjoyed so much. <G>
>
>If the Dow doesn't move higher than its previous (11/5/97) high (this
>next week?) but instead falls more decisively below its 200 day ma, I would
>think that bigger players will be moving even more decisively to get
>out...And if it doesn't move above that 11/5/97 high before moving down,
>will the 7349.99 hold again. Hard to imagine...And then what? 7100?
>
>Pure speculation: S&P500 futures trading limit down early this next
>week before that 11/5/97 high is beaten. The bull nightmare: S&P Futures
>trading limit down early Monday morning 11/17/97.
>
>So, what would it take to make me near term bullish? A close above the
>11/5/97 high before the next move down! Just another 175 points up.
>
>In the present market context, I don't think there's a substitute for
>reading through the first few chapters of any TA introductory text (Pring,
>Murphy, Schwager (my favorite), E&M) to the chapter on topping patterns and
>then getting out the old smoking jacket. <G>
>
>Steven Buss
>Walnut Creek, CA
>sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
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