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I hope the group doesn't mind me posting comments on the
market. I know most work so don't see what happens during
the day. Currently I'm watching the market about 18 hours a
day so hopefully I can point out something you may miss with
all the BS fed through the media.
I believe we are late in the market cycle. There are many
significant dangers that are not being talked about in the
media. That is why the financial establishment is going to
such lengths to calm the markets.
The primary danger is the number of unsophiscated people in
the market through their 401k's, mutual funds and direct
investments. For a long time money has been made by buying
the dips. Some day that is going to change and the
unsophiscated are going to get killed. I'm not wise enough
to know when but I do know the danger. But it could be on
this dip so the wise should be cautious.
The danger is that when the unsophiscated start to get hurt
they will start selling and the selling can snowball.
I posted the following on 10/1:
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Both the ASE Computer Tech Index and the Phil Semiconductor
Index are looking sick. My thinking until recently was that
the computer area would stay strong until late November but
by the looks of these indicators I'm beginning to think they
may roll over sooner. I own nothing in this area and have
been looking for a point to go short. I've just about
reached that point to start shorting.
If you own anything in this area look hard at your
positions, particularly if on margin.
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This is still true. This is not the time to be on margin or
the time to buy tech, particularly computer tech stocks.
This dip may recover but I don't in anyway see it recovering
like 1987. Too late in the cycle for that.
My personal investments are migrating towards natural gas
and some precious metals stocks, esp silver producers.
Don't have the risk in these as I would have in hi tech. I
own only one hi tech position and it is small.
It seems to me that no one should be over 50% invested in
the US market at the present time.
Bob Doeden
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