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I haven't done the kind of analysis you describe but I agree that it would
be interesting. But I agree with the recent post to this list of Clive
Roffey that this kind of analysis must be much more broadly scoped in terms
of time-frame than the last 2-3 bull market years. (Mr. Roffey, I'd love to
hear more from you.) I also think Riccardo Rinaldi's comment below hits the
mark:
"The only question is: Will the bear hit very hard very soon, with triple
digit losses almost every day for weeks , or will it be a steady, calm
downtrend?" (I'm assuming that a "triple digit loss" refers to triple digit
losses in the Dow?)
The number and kind of factors that move major market indices are way beyond
my capability to analyze. I'm a specific stock and specific stock option
picker where I can see a top and volume, etc.
Last night I tried to narrow the list of industries to consider for buying
specific stock option puts by looking at S&P industry indices. Difficult
task. There are just too many classic textbook topping patterns at the S&P
industry index level. I still haven't done an actual count.
This, and the topping patterns evident in the major market indices, are the
factors that make me bearish. I don't understand how this many topping
patterns can get turned around easily. (Short term, long term bearish? I
am not qualified to have an opinion.)
The only fact, currently, that makes me second guess this opinion has to do
with the money flow into mutual funds. Where is this money going? Isn't
this a bullish thing? Thoughts?
But again, I'm not investing in some market index where I must compete with
pros who are 5 times smarter than I am. I'm trying to find specific, low
volume, but fairly priced stock option opportunities where the topping
pattern dominates at the stock and industry level such that my 9 and 6 year
olds
can pick it out.
On a lighter note. I've had the following verse going through my mind the
last few days. It is sung to the tune of "Oh, I'd love to be an Oscar Meyer
weiner." (Perhaps only americans will get this.)
"Oh, I'd love to be a Topping Pattern Master;
That is what I'd truly love to be.
'Cause if I were a topping Pattern Master,
I could make a lot of money!"
<G>
Happy trading.
Steven Buss
Walnut Creek, CA
sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx
-----Original Message-----
From: Robert C. Richmond <rcrich@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Steven Buss <sbuss@xxxxxxxxxxx>; metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
<metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, October 27, 1997 4:52 AM
Subject: Re: Index list?
>Steven:
>
>Thank you for sharing your work. The evidence of topping patterns
certainly
>seems to be present.
>
>What I think would be interesting (but beyond my current capability to
>"scientifically" determine) is whether these same or very similar patterns
have
>been evident at other dates in the last say two years. Obviously there has
been
>similar "talk" at several stages of this bull market, but specifically
since
>about August of 1995 have such patterns shown up, only to have been
"over-ruled"
>by the continuing bull forces? If so, what is the difference in NOW that
may
>mean a very different result this time?
>
>
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