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All,
A tough week. At least IOM made a good up move to help off set some
of my portfolio losses <G>. On Friday, both GTIS and NTSC closed below my
up trend channels so I'm going to close those positions Monday. That will
leave me with CAV, CHB, CPU, CRUS, CUBE, IOM, LETRX, NPD, and OSU, and LEAP
calls on CRUS, MADGF, and TRV. Some of those stocks are also getting close
to their stops.
In looking at my indices, most of them are still in their up trend
channels, but heading for the bottom rapidly. I think the bottoms will
hold, but I'm going to make sure before entering any new positions. I also
think that the big caps are about finished correcting, and if the indices
do hold their up trend, that will be the time to start back into some of
the large caps. That's why I changed the name from weekly stock picks to
weekly stock watch <G>. If the channels do hold, I'll open a position
later in the week in either Compaq Computer (CPQ), Merrill Lynch (MER), or
Motorola (MOT).
CPQ at 69 1/2 is in a long, intermediate, and short term up trend. It
has been moving sideways lately and down the last couple of days toward the
bottom of the Short Term Up Trend Channel (STUTC). The top of the STUTC is
at 94 1/2 and the bottom is at 69. RSquared is rising and about to cross
0.15 which would indicate a new trend is about to start. Both S/C and MFI
are well into positive territory although dropping slightly. I hope this
indicates that the new trend will be up <G>. The fundamentals aren't bad
with a PSR 0f 2.73, no debt, revenue growth over 20% and earnings growth
over 60%.
MER at 72 7/8 is in the middle of an intermediate Term Up Trend
Channel (ITUTC) with the top at 82 and the bottom at 66 1/2. This one
needs to drop another 5 to 6 points before I'd be interested in opening a
position, but it had a large drop Friday and could do it. The indicators
support an up trend in progress, but that doesn't rule out a move to the
bottom of the channel. The fundamentals are good with a PSR of 1.02, a
high debt/equity of 21.94 but that's normal for the brokerage business, 13%
insider ownership, 16% revenues growth and 50% earnings growth.
MOT at 68 3/4 is also in an ITUTC with the top at 96 3/4 and the
bottom at 67. It hit an all time high of 90 1/2 in July and then fell for
three months to a low of 66 near the bottom of the ITUTC in mid-September.
It then broke out of its short term down trend in late September and rose
for over a week before pulling back to its current position again near the
bottom of the ITUTC. The indicators look like a move back to the top of
the wide ITUTC is possible. The fundamentals are OK with a PSR of 1.59,
Debt/Equity of 0.26, and revenue growth of 3 1/2 percent. It's earnings
have been dropping, but that's why the stock dropped about 30%. I'm hoping
that a turn around is near.
I'll send charts to everyone on the email list.
Jim
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