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(If you didn't get the charts let me know.)
First some comments on Anualfc.gif.
Looking at this 1 week ago (& is still in the back of my mind), that it is
reasonable to see a deeper correction as his model shows. I don't know the
numbers but there are quite a few DJI stocks that have announced earnings short
falls. That with the currency problems in Asian countries. This could all add
up to a lower DJIA. In some cases I would guess that this might be reflected in
the price all ready. But it depends on what type of an excuse Wall Street wants
to make when earnings do come out. Either "it's not too bad" as the excuss or
"we've been lied to by the company" excuss.
Enough said about that.
If the DJIA is going to move up based upon a surge in the Up/Down vol ratio and
looking at past normal correction, then we should see this in the next 2 weeks.
I think Fridays start was a good sign of things to come. But we know that
outside events can change the best of plans.
It is the Up/Down volume surge that we are finally waiting for.
Based on sure stupidity I will take a shot at how high the DJIA will go by the
end of the year.
(note the logic here If-Then)
If we have a surge in the NYSE Up/Down Volume ratio within the next couple of
weeks and it pursists for several weeks (just like the ones in the past) and
earnings aren't too bad (as viewed by wall street) then we could see 9000 in
the DJIA before you know it and could get close to 9500 before December 31,97.
I am assuming no major correction from the time of the Up/down Vol ratio surge
and the end of the year. I will be happy if I am within 200 point either way.
Here is how I came up with the figures. If you take the Raff regression of the
first low, high and higher low and extend it to the right. Then in MS go to
format, y-axis. Change max to 11,000. And with the format, x-axis put in 110 in
margin to get past the first of the year.
Now take your cross hairs up to the Raff regreesion on Dec 31. (approx.) 9800
top of channel (approx.) 9600 middle of channel and (approx.) 9400 bottom of
channel. This is an ESTIMATE based upon the current trend.
Harley Meyer
meyer093@xxxxxxxxxx
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