Weekly Pick

["Jim Greening" <jimginva@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

All,
     I finished my weekly tests early this week end since I'm going to be
busy Saturday and Sunday.  I have quite a bit of buying power since I was
stopped out of two positions this week.  I looked for another foreign
mutual fund, but couldn't find any that looked like they were at a good
entry point.  This week I like Cavalier Homes Inc (CAV) which designs,
produces, finances, and markets  manufactured homes and NBTY Inc (NBTY)
which sells over 500 different vitamin and other nutritional products.
     CAV at 11 1/8 is in a Short Term Up Trend Channel (STUTC) with the top
at 12 and the bottom at 10 7/8.  It made a high of 19 1/4 in July 96 and
then fell steadily to a low of 9 1/8 in June 97 which was also the bottom
of a Long Term Up Trend Channel (LTUTC).  It then essentially moved
sideways bouncing off the bottom of the LTUTC three times from there until
early September.  It did break out of the Intermediate Term Down Trend
Channel in August during the sideways move.  It broke out of the Horizontal
Channel (HC) Monday and moved up on good volume although it did pull back a
little Friday.  It's fundamentals are good with a PSR of 0.40, Debt/Equity
of 0.17, 20% insider ownership, and trailing year revenue growth of 27% and
earnings growth of 60%.  I'm going to open a position Monday.  I'll set the
target at 19 just under the 96 high.  Since the STUTC is narrow and based
on a few days data, I'll set the initial stop at 9 3/4 just under the top
of the old HC.  I'll move it up to under the STUTC after we get a couple
more weeks of data.
     NBTY at 20.437 just bounced off the bottom of an Intermediate Term Up
Trend Channel (ITUTC) and broke out of a steep Short term Down trend
Channel on good volume Thursday.  The top of the ITUTC is at 36 1/2 and the
bottom at 19.  The money flow indicator reversed a down trend during the
week and S/C looks like it may be forming a negative peak.  Both are
indications that the short term trend is reversing to the up side.  The
fundamentals are good with the PSR at 1.67, Debt/Equity of 0.16, 30%
insider ownership, steady revenue growth, and 160% earnings growth over the
last 12 months.  I'll open a position Monday.  I'll set the target just
under the top of the ITUTC at 36 and the stop just under the bottom at 18
3/4.
     I'll send charts in GIF format to everyone on the e-mail list.  If you
aren't on and want on, just yell.

Jim