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Good afternoon Mr. Robert Doeden.
You wrote:
Some comments about markets I'm watching:
DOLLAR: Dollar index peaked on 8/6. Corrected to 50 day
average and ralleyed back about 50% of the drop. MACD &
OBTR are both indicating that the rally will fail. Look for
purchasing opportunities in the Swiss ,Mark & Yen.
................Comments by others on these remarks are welcome.
Bob Doeden
Chicago
I do take issue with your analysis of the Dollar index. On a weekly chart,
if I draw a
trend line from the low of 11/22 (85.24) to the low of the 5/23 correction
(92.65), I see
that the Dollar is trading well above its Sep contract trendline. From the
5/23 low of
92.65 to the 8/08 high of 101.68 I have set a fibonacci retracement grid.
The recent
correction barely touched 38.2% line. As of 9/3, we were at the 23.6%
level. Also,
the recent correction could not take out the 5/2 high of 97.03 which began
the last
correction. As an aside, 9/2 ended a downward correction with a close
above the 10
day sma of the median (average) price. Everything I have written is taken
from the
chart, and the direction looks NORTH to me.
This is what makes trading futures so interesting. Robert, when you go
long the Mark,
I will be on the other side of the trade.
I have only been on the "List" for about three weeks, and have read several
of your
posts with interest. I would invite you to read the new issue of Futures
which has
an article concerning the T-Bond and trading bands. In defference with Mr.
Bollinger,
I have allowed the price to determine the bands for the last three years.
This tells
an interesting position from a trading view. If you read the article and
do some tests
with the h/l bands (I also include a median price band), please posts
results and
thoughts.
Al Taglavore
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