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Jan:
Your opinion is probably a sound one, but you have a small error. The
German inflation was in the 1920's not in 1932. In 1932 Germany, and most
of the rest of the world was suffering a great deflation, called the great
depression.
Lionel
At 01:01 PM 9/2/97 +0200, Jan van Diessen wrote:
>Dear Thomas and all,
>
>The Bundesbank will raise the rates if the inflation hits 2% no doubt
about that.
>This is because the Bundesbank knows what inflation can do (1932 etc).
>When the Bundesbank will raise the rates stock markets in Europe will come
down!!!
>Also the intrest rates in the Netherlands will raise.
>
>Greetings to all,
>
>
>Jan van Diessen
>
>Please look out, see Dr. Clive Roffey Dow Jones e-mail.
>I think he has a point there.
>
>
>
>-----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
>Van: Robert Doeden [SMTP:bdoeden@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
>Verzonden: Tuesday, September 02, 1997 4:04 AM
>Aan: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Onderwerp: Re: German rates
>
>Some recent interesting news items on the German economy:
>
>1. German plant & equipment orders in July were 7% above
>7/96. June orders were up 16% year over year.
>
>2. Exports surged 23.3% in June resulting in a surplus of
>13.4 billion marks.
>
>3. Preliminary seasonally adj consumer prices were up .3% in
>August vs July and 2% year over year. The German Chambers
>of Commerce said the Bundesbank must be "on the alert"
>following this rise in consumer inflation.
>
>4.German industrial output was surprisingly strong in June
>due largely to stronger than expected manufacturing growth.
>
>5.Business sentiment rose strongly in July, the fourth
>consecutive monthly increase, according to the Ifo Research
>Institute.
>
>Just a few of the news items in Investors Business Daily
>since 8/20. Doesn't sound like they are doing so bad over
>there.
>
>As far as I can see Germany & Japan are giving US companies
>fits from very competitive prices due to the rise in the $.
>Look at the problems Kodak is having. In addition corporate
>profits will suffer from conversion of their foreign profits
>into $'s. How long will US industry tolerate these problems
>before the message gets to Rubin. How long will labor
>refrain from pressing the White House for the transfer of
>jobs overseas? Answers to these questions will have a
>profound effect on our markets in the near future. Even if
>you don't trade currencies you should watch them carefully.
>There is money to be made here. I made a nice profit
>on the yen in a very short time in May. Gave part of it
>back recently when I took a small position too early.
>But I think the current exchange rates are unsustainable.
>
>Bob Doeden
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------
>
>Simianer wrote:
>
>> Hi Mark and all,
>>
>> > I've also heard it said that Germany is trying to raise
>> rates (can
>> > anyone confirm this?).
>>
>> This seems to be a rumor due to the very strong $ during
>> the last weeks.
>> The German Bundesbank declared to be happy with the
>> DM/$-relation when the $ was at DM 1,70.
>> Presently it is about DM 1,80 and so some guys expect the
>> Bundesbank to raise rates to give
>> some support to the DM.
>>
>> But: German economy is still weaker than expected (except
>> export industries), inflation is
>> very low. But the most important point: Unemployment rate
>> of nearly 11.5%. So I think, it
>> would be very hard for the Bundesbank to justify a raise
>> of rates in a moderate economic
>> scenario facing millions of unemployed people.
>>
>> I donīt believe in a raise during the next week - but I
>> donīt know, if the Bundesbank is
>> interested in my believes! ;-)
>>
>> Greetings from Germany
>>
>> Thomas
>
>
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