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Greatelto@xxxxxxx wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>Bob Doeden recently wrote...."I would like to have
it explained to my why we
<BR>will have
<BR>deflation when there are more & more people chasing fewer &
<BR>fewer resources."
<P>The possiblity of deflation exists because so much of the excess liquidity
<BR>that has been avaialble has found its way into capital investment.
This
<BR>expansion in capital investment has greatly exceeded consumer consumption.
<BR> So currently we have excess capacity and weak pricing (look at
the auto
<BR>industry rebates). Consumer borrowing is slowing reflecting less
demand.
<BR> This basically says that inflation is not a problem....but deflation
could
<BR>be.
<P>Recently I read a report that stated that capital surplus available
for
<BR>investment has risen about twice as much as consumer consumption since
the
<BR>early 1990's. And that gap in still rising rapidly. With
the consumer
<BR>generally chin-deep in debt and the growth in debt slowing, consumer
demand
<BR>could well weaken more than expected. If that happens, with excess
capacity
<BR>in our industries, pricing could get much weaker. That is how
deflation
<BR>could come about.
<P>This is not a die-hard prediction on my part. I merely wanted
to engage in a
<BR>discussion about its possibility. But so few people out there
picked up on
<BR>it that I now believe it might well be a very good contrarian view.
We
<BR>should watch out for it....
<P>Sorry for the delayed reply.
<P>Jerry</BLOCKQUOTE>
Been mulling over your reply. Today John Bollinger made his usual
Tuesday afternoon appearance on CNBC (he comes on between 14:30-15:00 central
time on Tuesdays.) I have watched him for a number of years and highly
respect his opinions. (Why CNBC kept John Murphy instead of Bollinger
I'll never know. Murphy is very good at telling you about the technical
aspects of a move <U>after</U> it has taken place. Bollinger sticks
his neck out and forecasts a movement.)
<P>Anyway, Bollinger is more concerned about deflation than inflation.
He didn't explain the reasons for his concern except for stating that producers
are having to make a greater effort to sell goods that they did in times
past which agrees with your comment about excess production facilities.
<P>I believe CNBC's economist, Bill Wolman (who I like to listen to in
spite of the fact he is over 40)(don't know how he stays on CNBC whose
hiring criteria is in the order of Photogenic, Under 40, with Brains last)
also is concerned about deflation.
<P>So you have a couple of heavyweights in your corner. Your comments
about excess capital investment in production facilities I'll buy.
The Japanese have flooded the world with money which has tended to go overseas
rather than stay in Japan.
<P>There are two things that still bother me about this deflation forecast:
<P>1) The world has a growing population that is looking for the better
life while the earth's resources are finite.
<BR>2) What happens when Japan starts clamping down on the liquidity they
are creating.
<P>Maybe we will have a short term period of deflation until excess production
capacity is eleiminated and then inflation will start again. In most
commodities there is a rather fine line between overcapacity and shortages.
<P>In closing I want to thank you for a thoughtful reply. I know
that some in this forum are disturbed that we don't keep strictly to questions
on MS. I personally like the level of discourse here. Get some
good ideas for investing and after all that is the goal of using MS.
<P>Bob Doeden
<BR>Chicago </HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Aug 12 22:08:56 1997
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From: Mark <bearcub@xxxxxxx>
To: "'Metastock List'" <Metastock-List@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: New User Question re. MS to Excel
Date: Tue, 12 Aug 1997 18:49:00 -0800
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On Tuesday, August 12, 1997 7:06 AM, Metastock
List[SMTP:MetastockList@xxxxxxxxx] wrote:
>As far as "read only" Master and Emaster files, that usually happens
>when you exit MetaStock for Windows abnormally. Are there files in the
ha-ha good joke - "when you exit MetaStock . . . abnormally." Better to say
when MetaStock exits abnormally, as the only time Metastock seems to exit
abnormally is when it does so on it's own. :)
>data folder that begin with a ~? Those are what is left when an
>abnormal termination occurs. If you start MetaStock of The DownLoader,
>it will tell you that you are still using the files and when you OK you
>will have access to the data.
>
>Equis Support
I have been manually deleting the ~ files because I continue to get
abnormal terminations and the manual deletes were the only thing that got
me going again. Is there any danger in going about this manual directory
cleanup?
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
=-=-=-=
- Mark D. Enzenberger
= bearcub@xxxxxxx
- http:\\www.alaska.net\~bearcub\
=Time is the best teacher; unfortunately, it kills all its students.
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