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Harley,
Interesting analysis. Thanks!
Jim
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> From: Harley Meyer <meyer093@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: metastock-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: DOW in danger?
> Date: Monday, July 28, 1997 8:15 PM
>
> Some other food for thought.
>
> From looking at day trading it is pretty reliable to say that when the
> Up Vol/Down Vol ratio is greater than 2 it is bullish and less than 1
bearish
> and between 2 and 1 there is no clear direction.
>
> If I go back to the charts and look at the total volume of the NYSE and a
50
> day moving average we can see that total volume peaked arround the 3rd
week in
> January. It trended lower until about the 2nd week in April. This
corresponds
> to the about 1 month prior to the DOWS peak in February and to the DOWS
April
> bottom.
>
> When I mean trend I am talking about Jim Greens channels.
>
> The total volume on the NYSE breakes it's 50 day moving average and stays
below
> it for one week beginning the 10th of March. Which coincides with the
DOWS
> March peak.
>
> Beginning with the first week of March I notice that a 10 day MA of
UP/Down Vol
> can no longer move higher than a 50 day MA of UP/Down Vol. And about the
3rd
> week of April the 10 day moves above the 50 day and stays above briefly.
Again
> these dates correspond to the DOWS March peak and confirms 1 week later.
And
> with breakout of the downtrend channel of the DOW in April.
>
>
> In general a 10 day MA of UP/Down Vol will rise above and then fall below
a 50
> day MA of UP/Down Vol. The cycles last about 2 weeks.
>
> Finally the NEW High minus New Lows broke below it's 50 day MA first week
of
> March and climbed above the Last week of April.
>
> SO are these signs present at the moment?
>
>
> 1-Has the total volume of the NYSE peaked and broken the bottom of the
uptrend
> channel?
>
> Total Volume may of peaked 20 June and fell below the bottom channel July
3rd.
> Volume might be falling.
>
> 2-Has the total volume on the NYSE fallen below it's 50 day moving
average,
> staying below it for one week?
>
> It is beginning to show signs that more and more consecutive days are
going
> below the 50 day MA but not quite a week yet.
>
> 3- Does a 10 day MA of UP/Down Vol no longer move higher than a 50 day MA
of
> UP/Down Vol for a 2 week period of time?
>
> Possible yes. The 50 day MA of UP/Down Vol has been declining since the
1st
> week of July. The 10 day MA of UP/Down Vol has failed to move above the
50.
>
> 4- Does the NEW High minus New Lows break below it's 50 day MA?
>
> On 18 July the NEW High minus New Lows broke below it's 50 day MA. But
will it
> shoot back up and stay? It has definitely broken it up trend lower
channel.
>
> Conclusion if the erosion in the DOW occurs it could happen as early as
> tomorrow and as late as 1 to 1 1/2 months.
> How much of a correction? Who knows. But the above would need to be
confirmed
> with the break down of the current uptrend channel of the DOW which is
> currently ridding along the middle of the channel.
>
> Harley Meyer
> meyer093@xxxxxxxxxx
>
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