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JimGinVA wrote:
> NOVL had a series of
> progressively steeper down trend channels until Friday. It set an all time
> low in late June. On Friday, it broke out of the short term down trend
> channel from the Feb 97 high on fairly good volume. While it has a series
> of longer term down trend channels to break out of before there's clear
> sailing, this would be a good bottom fishing candidate. It's a little on
> the speculative side since we would be trading against the direction of the
> longer term trends, but a position here with the stop set at 6 1/4 could
> have a good pay off.
>
> Jim
>
I too noticed some (favorable?) change in NOVL in recent days. I also
had no Metastock charts on Novell but have been following the company
since I first ran across them at Comdex in 1987. I remember spending
time in there "booth" and thinking maybe I should consider going to work
for them. But I just watched the stock grow for many years. (The $2
price of 1987 indicated by one of you to Thomas, sounds about right to
my memory.) Then of course there were the days when NOVL and Lotus were
going to merge. And then the fiasco among brothers of NOVL buying Word
Perfect at the perfectly wrong time. My most recent watching has been
to watch most of my NOVL leap premium vaporize over the last year.
Now with that said, I have a question Jim for you and of course any
others who want to address it.
You have done very well indeed via your charts and it has been very
interesting for me. I have to think you must indeed love the market of
the last several months. Understand, I don't mean to minimize your
success in this up market. But I am wondering how you "weigh-in" the
potential for a substantial (?) pull back of the "market." I realize an
individual stock's own chart reflects some of what the "market" does.
But when you see on a Friday a beautiful chart to go long on, how do you
incorporate the danger of the "market" going south on the Tuesday after
taking the Monday position. (I don't mean the Friday, Monday, Tuesday
specifically.) Do you constantly do charting of the DJIA, S&P or other
indexes? Whether you do or don't, do you temper your TA on individual
stocks by your "feel" of the broader market? Do you now, or in a bear
market, look for and buy on bear signals for bear moves.? All this
became a little wordy. Let me know if the words got in the way of what
I was trying to say. Maybe clearer stated: If you see a great
direction in channels of a stock, looking strong to go up, up, up,; do
you stay out of the stock if you "fear" the overall market to be
vulnerable to the downside? Or, if you "fear" the broad market is going
to head down, do you start looking for patterns for stocks to short?
Thanks,
Bob
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