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JimGinVA wrote:
>
>> Cisco broke out to a new all time high today. It should have clear
> sailing to the top of its current Short Term Up Trend Channel at 84.
Jim
Could you please give me a few more pointers on channel trading. I am
referencing your remarks above. Two introductory comments: First, I too
have, for some time, been using candlevolume trading as a way to
incorporate volume into my analysis. Second, I have been watching CISCO
and trying to apply some of your techniques.
That said, here is my problem. If I apply Trader Vic’s channel process
for CISCO, I also get a short term uptrend channel with a target
slightly less than 80. I use the lows of 4/28/97 and 6/30/97 to draw my
bottom channel. And as you described, I drew the top channel parallel
to the bottom and not intersecting any data. As you can see, my top
prediction is 4 points less than yours.
However, using Raff Regression channels, my top target becomes
approximately 83 -- close to your prediction but still no cigar.For this
analysis, I use the low of 4/22/97 and the recent high of 07/09/87 - the
process you described in a previous posting. From this discussion, I am
assuming you are using Raff Regression channels. I know that you said
you used them initially.
A couple of questions: First, is my assumption about Raff Regression
channels correct? If you are using them, when would you switch to Trader
Vic channels and what metrics would you use to help decide when to
switch.
Second, what might account for the differences between your estimate and
mine regardless of the channel types we are using. I am attaching my
latest chart so you can see the Trader Vic and Raff Regression channels
I am using. I would greatly appreciate any help. Thanks again for your
time, patience, and willingness to share.
Jim DeWilder
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