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Jim,
You're very clearer with that explanation about draw trend channel and we (
I ) appreciate and will be grateful if we ( I ) can see a chart example
with those lines to see togheter the theoric lesson with the chart
practical.
Regards
[],s J.Carlos
----------
> From: Jim Greening <JimGinVA@xxxxxxx>
> To: J.F. DeWilder <jdewilder10151@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Metastock List
<MetaStock-List@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: RE: Weekly Pick
> Date: Sexta-feira, 4 de Julho de 1997 12:12
>
> Jim,
> If I'm long a stock in an up trend channel and the stock closes
below
> that channel, I'll sell the stock the next morning. I then erase the top
of
> the channel and draw a Trader Vic type Horizontal Channel (HC) for the
trend
> reversal test. The Trader Vic HC top is draw with a horizontal line
through
> the recent high. The bottom is draw with a horizontal line through the
> preceding minor low. I wait for a breakout of the HC.
> If the stock breaks through the top of the HC, that is a trend
continues
> signal and I'll redraw the bottom of the up trend channel form its
original
> point through the last low. I'll replace the top with a parallel line
through
> a high which doesn't intersect any other data. I usually won't take a
take a
> new position in the stock here unless I really like it. I prefer
entering on
> short term trend reversals off the bottom of intermediate term up trend
> channels.
> If the stock breaks through the bottom of the HC, I'll construct a
Raff
> Regression Short Term Down Trend channel. This is the place Trader Vic
says
> it's OK to short a stock. Since the market is biased to the upside, I
require
> more. I'll only short if the short term trend reverses to the down side
and
> the intermediate term trend is also down. I also want the fundamentals
to be
> bad - high PE, high debt, and negative earnings surprises.
> In general, I like to trade when the short term trend reverses in
the
> direction of both the intermediate and long term trends or when the
> intermediate term trend reverses in the direction of the long term trend.
I
> prefer to enter a position shortly after the stock bounces off the
channel
> wall, but will take a position when an intermediate term trend breaks.
> Hope that was a little clearer.
>
> Jim
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: J.F. DeWilder
> Sent: Thursday, July 03, 1997 9:03 PM
> To: Jim Greening
> Subject: Re: Weekly Pick
>
> Jim Greening wrote:
> >
> > > I've found that the market likes to shake stops out by spiking
down
> > through a whole number and then rallying back up. That's why I don't
like
> to
> > set stops with my broker, but would rather use mental stops. I set my
> mental
> > stops at the 3/4 point below the trend line on long positions and
require
> that
> > the stock closes below that stop. Then I'll close the position the
next
> day.
> > I have some friends that even require two or three closes below the
stop to
> > avoid being shaken out, but one is enough for me <G>.
> > If a stock breaks out of a well defined intermediate or long term
up
> > trend and then continues up, I'll erase the top of the old up trend
channel
> > and start a new short term channel from the low before the breakout.
For a
> > Raff Regression short term channel that hasn't been well confirmed,
I'll
> > stretch the channel.
> >
> > Jim
> > Jim,
>
> Thanks so very much for your advice. I was ( and still am to a certain
> extent) using oscillators as I had described some months ago. Recently,
> I had nmy lunch eaten when I shorted a stock. In retrospect, it looks
> like I unknowlingly shorted into a long term uptrend. Oh well, live and
> learn.
>
> That, in a nutshell, sparked my interest in channel trading. I bought
> both of Trader Vic's books, have read both of them, and am now in the
> process of digesting the information. Your advice clarified some
> confusion I previously had.
>
> For a point of clarifciation, in my last question, I was assuming that
> the stock broke the bottom of the uptrend channnel. From your answer, I
> believe that you inferred that ...but I just wanted to make sure.
>
> As I progress, I will ask some more questions, over the MetaStock
> listserve, about channels. Thank you for your time and knowledge.
>
> Jim
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