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Frank B. Gaylord wrote:
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> I'm new to this forum having just bot MS. But I've been investing for 40
> years lately mostly in commodities. I also have a few shares. And
> a lot of grey hairs.
>
> I just want to mention to those that follow the "Techs" I hope they
> are charting things like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the ASE
> Computer Index and others like this. Don't get caught up in the
> hype on most of these computer stocks. These things remind
> me more and more of the Color TV hype put on many years ago. Half
> those stocks are out of business now and the rest are having a hard
> time making a buck. Companies like Dell, Compaq & Gateway really
> don't have much that is proprietary. All they do is screw the things
> togeather. And most of the others often find themselves outpaced by
> others with a new idea. I average a lot better than the S&P by not
> buying those stocks that gap down 25% when you least expect it.
>
> --
> Bob Doeden
> Chicago
>
> Remove SPAM from email address when replying.
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Bob -
>
> Welcome to Cyberspace!
>
> Your comment of tech stocks hit one of my hot buttons. It is these
> stocks that are kicking me where I do not want to be kicked. (See my
> relevant web site listed below).
>
> You mentioned that you are doing "a lot better than the S&P buying not
> buying those stocks." How much better and how are you doing it?
>
> -- Frank :-)
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
In my stock portfolio I was up over 70% last year and that wasn't one
lucky stock
in a small account. I also consistently make money in commodities when
most lose.
I want to put this in perspective. I've been doing this for 40 years
and I didn't
make much money for the first 20. Tried a lot of things that didn't
work. I
work at this 12 hours a day so I better make money. Have to keep the
wife happy.
I usually don't recommend stocks or give advice. There are a lot that
do better
than I and I've found that as soon as I get pompous I get sh_t on. I
still
make a hell of a lot of mistakes. Dropped a bundle on the Yen early this
year
for example but recently got it back.
For what it is worth (about 2 cents) my luck changed when I became the
biggest
contrarian around. What the WSJ likes I sell, what they don't like I
buy.
Most of the Journal is BS anyway. Sure miss Dorfman. Made a lot
of money selling his touts. I don't diversify. If
I have a good idea I buy a bundle. Try to keep no more than 5 issues in
my portfolio.
Don't use stop orders. Got picked off too many times. Even in
commodities I can't
remember when I last used a stop. There is lots of "tech" out there
beside the
computer ect stocks. For example, horizontal drilling for gas.
Sorry to bore you all. Sometimes I get carried away. But I think we
are coming to a period when things are going to change. You not only
have to
make the money but you have to keep it also. I'm not shorting yet
except
for a few S&P500 contracts but my gut says the computer stocks are going
to
be losers over the next 5 years. The idea that things are different now
is
pure BS. The only thing feeding this market is the Yuppies buying funds
and history tells us the popular investments always lose.
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