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Gitanshu,
Thanks for your analysis of ASND. Since ASND is down 2 as I write this,
it is well below the bottom of my Short Term Up Trend Channel at 50. If it
closes below 50, I'll consider it in a short term down trend and look for
support just under 37 at the bottom of the long term up trend channel.
Therefore, I wouldn't touch it for a while.
I have MSFT near the top of an Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel. I
wouldn't get in it near the top of a channel since it may fall back to the
bottom of the channel around the 102 level. On the other hand, I never short
a stock in an up trend channel. If I owned MSFT, I'd sell covered calls here.
Since I don't own MSFT, I'll just watch it at these levels.
Jim
-----Original Message-----
From: Gitanshu & Wendy Buch
Sent: Wednesday, June 04, 1997 7:01 AM
To: Metastock List
Subject: RE: ASND
Here's my two eights' worth:
6/3/97 close: 50.3125
I'd wait for ASND to test support at the following numbers:
1. Fibonnacci supports
>From the 4/22 low of 36.125 to the 5/28 high of 60:
45.24525 at the 38.2% retracement
48.0625 at the 50% retracement
50.87975 at the 61.8% retracement
Since 6/3 close penetrated the 61.8% retracement, I'd wait to see if ASND
holds support at 48 and then at 45.25 before going long.
2. Moving averages:
ASND bounced DOWN from its 200 DMA at 60 on 5/28. Historically, it has also
traded within a 1% band of its 50 DMA as support/resistance. Both MAs are
widely watched - so watch for price action here:
6/3 50 DMA: 47.0450
200 DMA: 59.3316
Given the proximity of the 50 DMA to the 50% retracement, additional reason to
wait and see if the the 50% retracement holds.
3. Williams 14 period %R is -31.707 indicating overbought/neutral tendency -
but a Buy signal, will be issued after %R starts moving up making a low in the
-90's area.
This would likely happen if prices move back to the 50% or the 38% supports.
I could post other studies - but this is what I could manage in a 5 second
quick-check!
Bottomline: Go long after the Fib supports have been established.
If a tech summer selloff does occur, ASND will likely give back 100% of its
gain from April. This is exactly what happened to Cisco, CA and a whole bunch
of others between 7/96 and 5/97.
While on techs, anybody seen an MACD divergence develop recently in MSFT?
Remarkably, this is absent in most other tech high-fliers. Where next, MSFT?
100?
Comments welcome!
Gitanshu
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