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I don't have charts for currencies, but I believe I
do follow you. The decisions you've described are precisely what I'm
trying to avoid with my arbitrary rules. I'm prepared to be wrong a
significant percentage of the time if it means I don't have to rely on my
'feelings' for decision making, as long as the winners add up to more than the
losers (by enough). I just don't think I will ever be good enough to read
subtle price moves on the fly. I'm pretty sure that I would whipsaw myself
into oblivion.
Kevin
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Kevin,
I agree on the B&B as the first
leg.
The USD/Yen chart posted earlier today has now
completed the B&B at 118.50.(618 Retracement of 113.50)
After having taking the profit just prior to this
618, my strategy now is to wait until the
.682 retracement at 117.90 of the immediate prior move and see if the trade
experiences support at the .618 (possible Buy) or continues down
indicating a shorting possibility, this is where it gets a little
tricky.
The trade did not make it down to 117.90 and is
retesting 118.50, I do not feel confident enough to re-enter on the long
side.
You could wait for the DRPO which would probably
bring you into the region of 115.00 which would be the completion of the
Gartley pattern (if the original 618 @ 118.50 is not violated), still with me
?
This would indicate a Buying opportunity ( a
potential DRPO Failure) in opposition to the DRPO short.
I guess this is where I lose the plot, as there
have been several opportunities to profit, (117.90 to 115.00)before getting to
the potential DRPO etc.
I am not quite sure how to tie dlevels into this
process
I trust this contributes to the learning process,
any comments, or observations would be welcome.
JdF
----- Original Message -----
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<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Kevin
Bryant
To: <A title=dlevels@xxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:dlevels@xxxxxxxxxxx";>dlevels@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 24, 2001 10:12
PM
Subject: Re: [dlevels]
Not yet on the oscillator. Interestingly,
the Gartley pattern often looks like it begins where a DRPOLAL ends - and in
the other direction. It's conceivable that one could trader a B&B,
switch directions on a DRPO, and then switch back with a Gartley on the same
stock.
Still gathering statistics and categorizing the
various versions of the Gartley. It
looks like the success rate isn't much greater than 50%, but with a win/loss
size ratio in the 1.5:1 range, it looks like a positive expectancy may still
be possible after commissions and slippage.
It's amazing how the success rate changes when
you only use the ones you find *before* they complete or fail vs. strictly
hindsight study of the pattern. Apparently a bias of the eye for
looking for winners. Part of what threw me off on B&B's,
also. It looked like it was possible to be much more lax with the
rules than what I had realized. It's fun, anyway.
:-)
As rarely as DRPO's seem to show up, it would
sure be nice to have a list like this one collaborate on running them
down. I guess varying time frames for trading would be a
limitation. Much more interesting to have the setup pointed out
*before* it's completed.
Kevin
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Kevin,
I'm also new, but willing to put in the
work.
Also have been doing a bunch of stuff on
Gartley patterns, which seem to get you into the trades earlier than the
DRPO, B&B etc.
Fibonacci, Gartley, DiNapoli, all seem to be
convergent techniques, so I guess it just means more study and practical
application until it comes together.
Lots of exciting stuff to learn.
Did you get any answers back on the Qchart
detrend oscillator query from anyone?
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