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Fundamental analysis is DiNapoli??
Kevin
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
Report for the
Financial Sector (AMEX: XLF),
12/11/00.Summary:Finance headed down...
Probably..Detail.Since September XLF has been trying to cross the
$30.00 level. Three times it has failed between $29.00 and $30.00, now we have
another attempt.How often should it try before giving up? Unless there
is some unpredictable surprise, I expect XLF will fail this time
again..But as with most trading, this is not a sure thing. The Monthly
chart shows a strong uptrend (MACD) is still in place. XLFhas supported
twice in this uptrend at the .382 area (Focus = 29.75 9/15/00 Reaction = 19.50
3/10/00). Supporting at the .382 rather than .618 is a good sign that the
$30.00 resistance can be exceeded.Why do we have so much resistance in
this area? Why do I favor a down-turn at this time?The monthly chart
shows we are in the XOP resistance area of $29.10 . As well, the daily chart
shows (see FibNodes attached) an OP at 30.125 and XOP at 32.83. The Weekly
MACD is still in a solid down-trend, though it could attempt to cross upwards
in the near future. The daily chart has just shown the first signs of
resistance, after reaching the Oscillator-Predictor overbought
level.More recently, the Daily chart shows we had a deep retracement,
finding support at the .618 area rather than the .382 area (support on
11/22/00). So will the longer term uptrend win out over the shorter
term resistance? I think the resistance will be sufficient this time. We will
know soon, and when we do we can trade the very short term in the right
direction.. One way to benefit from this knowledge, is to watch the stock
charts which make up this sector, look for Directional indicators, or
Confluence/Agreement. This combination can provide a low-risk trade, if it
materializes.
---DiNapoli Fibonacci techniques -<A
href="http://www.fibtrader.com/";
eudora="autourl">http://www.fibtrader.comTo
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