|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Kevin,
At 07:15 PM 12/12/2000 -0500, you wrote:
I'll look at B&B type situations as part of another setup, but I
don't find them reliable enough to trade on their own.
I disagree.. Someone recently told me they are working 90% of the
time. The ones that don't
work are low-risk most often.
I quote that, because someone else had that statistic, not only
me...
OK. I'm going back through my study of about 300 of them that I
picked out prospectively - when they looked like they were about to cross
the 3x3 - weed out the ones that I know you would tell me didn't have 135
bar thrust, throw out the ones that were other than standard length
thrust (two and three day bars found on TC2000), and see if I just looked
at things the wrong way. I've been known to do that. :-) But
I do tend to learn eventually.
Be ruthless on the thrust requirement. Then post the list of symbols or
charts here..
I'll look at them at that point..
Do you keep any statistics of your own on the reliability of the
setup?
I used to, but not any more. I probably will make a project
of it again.
Based on what you've described, you need more than what's in
the book to make them work.
What's missing?
I think I was referring to the way you described your trend trade of
PAYX after the daily B&B didn't work out. I think you described
strategies that weren't included in the book.
Oh.. It was a "probable look-alike" but since the setup was
flaky I bailed when the support
dragged on beyond 3 days. After that it was a pure TREND trade, not a
B&B.
I appreciate you going through all this stuff. I might get
there yet.
Thrust is the key. Look at 135 bar charts. Are the thrusting bars longer
than
common bars? I'm happy to help, but be ruthless about thrust, and
then
apply the exits as described below. Also, keep it simple, just the
basic firm DiNapoli rules. No other fancy tricks (trend lines,
triple-smoothed
inverted-mocha-lines, LP patterns, risk-reward stops etc.. Just
simple
DiNapoli, do what works..
One quick question. Other than the time factor, do you have a
standard failure point for a B&B trade? That question itself
may display some of my misunderstanding.
If it's a good setup, then the stop is deep, below a significant Fib. So
if entry is
at .382, stop is behind .618... With a good setup/thrust, I have a LOT
of
confidence, so no 3-period rule, and use deep stop. I much prefer
if
either entry or stop is placed near Confluence and/or Agreement.
If it goes against me I ride it out and most often do not get
stopped out, I get out on the retracement towards (close to) my
entry.
This exit would be at about the .618 of the move back in the
direction of the trend.
THIS MAKES IT A LOW-RISK TRADE MOST OFTEN. Very important.
Otherwise on a weak "look-alike" I want the B&B to
support/resist within 3 or 4 bars
of crossing the 3X3. (3 bars is official technique). Also the 3-period
rule
is in force. Another approach would be a MineSweeper entry, on a
"look-alike".
-Neal.
Thanks again.
Kevin
eGroups Sponsor
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
dlevels-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
|