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The current 43.25 low in PAYX from 61.25 is the weekly
.382 retracement of the 15.7/61.25 segment (43.85). This should be a pretty
solid low and it has tested it the last two days. The next stop on the downside
if it continues would be around 40. My early Stoch and oversold indicator are
showing a turn up as of today and have been pretty reliable with PAYX in this
type of situation. Confluence is at 49 if it retraces from this
point.
Looking back several years PAYX has tended to peak in Nov.
then dive and recover in Dec. History may repeat itself, who knows. PAYX may
rally friday or early next week back to the 49 area and would be worth a
short because a lot of people took a bath on the down spike and are going to be
eager to get out when it gets there.
One more note, PAYX does tend to give one last scary spike
before it turns when it has recovered from down trends in the
past.
Ed
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