found an interesting article.
his claims can easily be
tested using Amibroker. For instance he claims that "Over the course of
time, stock index markets touch their daily pivot point values roughly 70% of
the time."
this can be tested
using:
DH = Ref(H,-1);
DL =
Ref(L,-1);
DC = Ref(C,-1);
PV = (DH+DL+DC)/3;
R1 = PV
+ (PV - DL);
R2 = PV + rg;
R3 = R1 + rg;
R4 = R2 +
rg;
S1 = PV - (DH - PV);
S2 =
PV - rg;
S3 = S1 - rg;
S4 = S2 - rg;
// pivot stats
occ1 =
IIf(O < pv AND H >= pv,1,0);
"retrace up to pivot: " +
WriteVal(LastValue(Cum(occ1)/Cum(O < pv)));
occ1 = IIf(O >
pv AND L <= pv,1,0);
"retrace down to pivot: " +
WriteVal(LastValue(Cum(occ1)/Cum(O >
pv)));
for the SPY I get 66.9%
(retrace up) and 62.6% (retrace down).
For gaps up and down a gap up
(again for SPY) between R1 and R2 has 81.9% chance to retrace back to R1. A
gap up between R2 and R3 has 83.1% chance to retrace back to R2. Similar
percentages can be found for downside gaps.