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hedging against the oil. only USD can be traded as a sound hedge.
plus all the bad news on US has now been fully discounted in the
currency. now its probably EUR's turn to go down.
finally all rational reasoning is nonsense in the world of capital
markets including mine. just trade the trend.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> Does anyone have any idea why the USD is so strong at the moment.
>
> This is puzzling me as I can't see the basis for it.
>
> The only explanation I can come up with is that there has been a
> silent emulation of the Japanese 'carry trade' based on low
interest
> US loans (US has low interest rates, a desire to protect export
> competitiveness and a sophisticated investment culture in common
with
> Japan).
>
> quote from:
>
> http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/yen_carry_trade_101620084
>
> Japan sits at the epicenter of "bubble-mania" in foreign exchange,
> because its yield starved domestic investors plowed $6 trillion of
> their savings into overseas assets.
>
> Japanese investors increased their exposure to foreign assets by
¥59
> trillion ($566 billion) in 2007 alone, setting a record top of ¥610
> trillion ($5.9 trillion) and making Japan the world's largest
> creditor nation for the 17th straight year.
>
> In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of low-
> cost Japanese Yen (Tokyo interest rates haven't got above 1.0% per
> year since the start of this decade), in order to buy higher
yielding
> currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad.
>
>
> "History never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep at
night"
> (Split Enz)
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Financial_Crisis
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> wrote:
> >
> > Hello,
> >
> > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
> > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
> >
> > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at
> 1.5%)
> >
> > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
> >
> > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of
> Japan central bank in '90s.
> >
> > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much
> faster than FED, IMHO.
> > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD
=
> 1.0 soon
> > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for
> months to come.
> >
> > Any thoughts?
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
> >
>
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