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Probabilities (rounded) according to:
1) Options (as of close yesterday):
1.00 -> 43%
1.25 -> 23%
0.75 -> 17%
1.50 (no change) -> 9%
2) Futures (live)
1.00 -> 66%
1.25 -> 34%
Things are moving down . . .
PS
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
wrote:
>
> Hello,
>
> Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
> http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
>
> Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at
1.5%)
>
> In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
>
> It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of
Japan central bank in '90s.
>
> Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much
faster than FED, IMHO.
> If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD =
1.0 soon
> and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for
months to come.
>
> Any thoughts?
>
> Best regards,
> Tomasz Janeczko
> amibroker.com
>
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