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> For the first time in my life, I actually wonder if the powers that
> be might engineer concerted market closures for a few days or more
> next week.
Funny you should say that because the muses fired that shot across my
bow earlier today i.e. a co-ordinated closure of major markets (I
didn't follow up on the idea though ... they are always whispering in
my ear ... can't keep up with them .. I think it is a wild outsider
at this stage).
>Clearly, this
> kind of somewhat slow motion but nonetheless huge train wreck is not
> something that most of us have any experience with. The only
> salvation here is very small position size. And I mean very small,
> long or short.
It would be good fun if it wasn't for the real people getting
hurt ... business friends have done a power of dough in foreign
accounts ... just going about their normal international business too.
No predictions this week, but for the sake of the discussion - lets
look at the plus side:
- we just had a classic dead cat bounce, as per the odds for one to
occur (better than even)
- using the S&P500 as the yardstick... we just made a double bottom
with high volatility ... typical of a bottom ... now waiting to see
if we go to a new low on the charts cf the nightly news.
- fundamentals, like US overall Price/Book, earnings retraction are
not at record lows for the modern era so it has been worse before.
Also their seems to be a different impetus in the markets ... gold
made two recent short term high spikes, correlated to the record days
of high emotion etc but now it is on the downward track ... seems the
sell off is like a more logical response to the predicted econom,ic
downturn rather than panic selling.
Also, where esle can the market go when oil is plunging (this is the
interesting one ... what is really going on with oil)?
As for trading, why only small positions?
Intraday with any amount doesn't carry any more risk than usual ...
the exception is overnight holds which are a bit more risky than
normal, especially long overnights.
I am not thinking about holding long term bulls just yet though.
And there has been nothing wrong with shorting gold/oil/commodities
recently ... who knows if that will go on ... it seems to have been a
bit overdone already but stranger things have happened.
I might have a think about US/Yen and interest rates later.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxx> wrote:
>
> Touché.
>
> By the way, we just got back from Firenze and Roma, and there were
> seemingly a *lot* of Polish people touring Italy. I think only
> Americans outnumbered them. I asked a bunch of them if they knew
who
> the richest guy in Poland was, but your name hardly ever came up.
>
> Anonymity is good. ^_-
>
> BTW, October seems to be *the* time to go. Eight consecutive days
in
> the low 20s (low 70s for you Americans) and beautiful sunshine every
> day. The Chianti Classico Reserve doesn't overheat while you are
> having lunch al fresco.
>
> I got a shot of the Sistine ceiling with my new Nikon D3 (24-70
> f/2.8, my "walk around Italy lens"). It's a 'no-no', but since
> about 500 other people were shooting in spite of a few shouting
> guards admonishing them not to, I figured one more wouldn't hurt.
No
> flash, so I didn't ruin Michelangelo's fantastic work. (I can't
> believe people try to use flash on compact cameras aimed at a
ceiling
> 20 meters above them; the hardest part of getting my shot was timing
> it so none of them were flashing while my shutter was open.) It's
the
> *only* part of the (wonderful) Vatican Museum where photography is a
> no-no. And of course it's exactly where I think most of the shots
> are taken. The guards shout, but they don't confiscate or demand
> deletion, so people just dodge and shoot. Nobody gets tossed out
> either, apparently. But the guards do get loud.
>
> And don't try to shoot the Carabinieri up close. Some of them get
> rather surly about it, even with a smiling, diminutive Asian female
> shooter. They demand deletion. Retreat, and swap to a longer lens.
> ^_^
>
> I just had a gander at Globex. Maybe I'll have to sell all my
camera
> gear over the weekend to remain solvent next week. Clearly, this
> kind of somewhat slow motion but nonetheless huge train wreck is not
> something that most of us have any experience with. The only
> salvation here is very small position size. And I mean very small,
> long or short.
>
> For the first time in my life, I actually wonder if the powers that
> be might engineer concerted market closures for a few days or more
> next week. Was it Greenspan who said, "Après moi, le déluge"?
>
> Yuki
>
> Friday, October 24, 2008, 5:40:42 PM, you wrote:
>
> >> Hi Tomasz,
> >>
> >> TJ> and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency
for months to come.
> >>
> >> TJ> Any thoughts?
> >>
> >> Price cut for upgrades paid via Japanese yen? ^_^
> >>
> >> Yuki
>
> TJ> Yes, since price is fixed in US dollars, the amount expressed
in yen is lower day by day :-)
>
> TJ> Best regards,
> TJ> Tomasz Janeczko
> TJ> amibroker.com
>
>
> TJ> ------------------------------------
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