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> To get back on subject a little, have you been getting involved in
the
> markets of China or Australia or Korea?
Re Australia:
The chrystal ball I bought at the NewAge shop isn't working too well
but FWIW some broad brush strokes.
Generally the Aus market is small and lop-sided but it is a well
regulated market.
It is overweight in Financials and Materials.
You would be hard pressed to find more than 1-2 mature companies, if
you elect to follow a sector, outside of Materials and Financials
anyway(even the Financial/Material choices are limmited compared to
the US/international).
IMO the USA is a very special market because it attracts
international players, as well as the locals, so the game is played
at a higher level there than anywhere else - hope they don't spoil
the game.... it must be worth a lot to the US economy.
Current specifics:
The Aus Financials have been moving in step with the US XLF, at least
since the sub-prime shakedown started, if not before.
Commodity prices are holding the nation up - if they go things will
slide a bit.
Against that oil at >=100 USD is a shock (it really does bite into
all facets of the economy) - at those prices the AUS economy will
slowly head down, with a time delay - oil prices affect energy hungry
commodity producers too - it just takes a couple of returns to filter
to the bottom line.
The interest rate barometer is set to cut - slumping markets will add
to that impetus (the Fed is waiting for the dust to settle first).
Aus Financials are mainly limited to the big four (ANZ, NAB, WBC,
CBA) - add .ASX and you can see at Yahoo australia that they have div
yields at around 7% - that is since the +10-15% recovery of the last
few days - the official cash rate is 7.0 - they are plumb for a buy
and hold apart from fall out from the danger of more US fallout.
They are no where near in the same boat as the US Financials - they
are just going down with that tide - Aus gave up national socialism a
long time ago - only agrarian socialism still survives - no Aus
taxpayer fingers are in the private enterprise financial pie.
They are bumping along the bottom, with volatility, and would have
headed north again by now if it wasn't for the latest US crisis.
Small chainstore mortgage brokers/providers have been shaken out of
the market - some of the smaller 'banks' are cheap enough to warrant
interest from the big four.
Foreign financials are bit players here - HBOS has a
small 'independent' arm called BankWest - CBA are rumoured to be
hovering (probably just a rumour started by the black hat hedgers).
Interesting to note that last time I looked (1-2 weeks ago) the
takeup rate of available short stock for the ASX was quite low so the
big story that short hedgers were running the Aus market was a WMD.
(you could see a list of approved short stock and daily short vols at
the ASX - mind you who is to say how much naked shorting was going
on - IMO I don't think that was really the case - the outcomes in
Aus were purely fear driven institutional selling and regulators
morally supporting the USA/UK)
AFAIK shorting, via bought puts, is still permitted in AUS but the
options market is very illiquid anyway (waiting on my broker to
confirm).
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "lou" <loulh@xxx> wrote:
>
> Hello Yuki -
>
> Good to hear from you again. I used to look forward to your
periodical
> updates on conditions in Japan. Times go by and conditions change
but still
> are interesting. You seem more American than ever which surprises
me a
> little. The "polite" Japanese way of phrasing a sentence has faded
away and
> it is a shame because it did promote friendliness and harmony.
Miss that
> too.
>
> To get back on subject a little, have you been getting involved in
the
> markets of China or Australia or Korea? I would think being closer
to them
> that you might have more insight than from here. Don't know about
trading
> conditions though.
>
> Regardless, the best to you and family.
>
> lou howard
> ======================================================
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 6:23 AM
> Subject: US now and Japan in 90's, was: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did
everyone
> do last week?
>
>
> > Yuki,
> >
> > On a more positive note - I am sure that list members would
> > love to hear your opinion about the similarities (if any)
> > between Japan in the early nineties, and the US now.
> >
> > In Bernanke famous speech (2002) that Patrick mentioned earlier
in this
> > thread
> >
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default
.htm
> > we can find this:
> > "The Japanese situation is a complex one [...]
> > Japan's economy faces some significant barriers to growth besides
> > deflation,
> > including massive financial problems in the banking and corporate
sectors
> > and a large overhang of government debt.
> > private-sector financial problems have muted the effects of the
monetary
> > policies that have been tried in Japan,
> > even as the heavy overhang of government debt has made Japanese
> > policymakers more reluctant to use aggressive fiscal policies
> > [...] Fortunately, the U.S. economy does not share these
problems, at
> > least not to anything like the same degree"
> >
> > Unfortunatelly the last sentence does not seem to be valid in
2008.
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@xxx>
> > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:43 PM
> > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
> >
> >
> >> Hello,
> >>
> >> In his post Patrick just added single sentence to
> >> make sure I notice his private e-mail in my inbox.
> >> I can not see anything wrong with that.
> >> I have seen hundreds of posts on this list mentioning
> >> that somebody posted something via private channel,
> >> and nobody complained.
> >> Could we continue in a (more) friendly atmosphere?
> >> Thank you in advance and have a good day.
> >>
> >> Best regards,
> >> Tomasz Janeczko
> >> amibroker.com
> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxx>
> >> To: "vlanschot" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >> Sent: Monday, September 22, 2008 12:18 PM
> >> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: How did everyone do last week?
> >>
> >>
> >>> Hi vlanschot,
> >>>
> >>> You overrate your ability to engender panic by several orders of
> >>> magnitude.
> >>>
> >>> And yes, you cannot possibly imagine how I coped last week, nor
this
> >>> week, nor during any week, unless you take the other side of my
> >>> trades.
> >>>
> >>> I just find it strange that you had to announce that you sent a
> >>> private email -- on a public list.
> >>>
> >>> Also, FWIW, I think I was part of this community before you
were, and
> >>> I don't think it has changed that much.
> >>>
> >>> You can go back to trying to look clever now; I won't attempt
to get
> >>> into your way. But frankly, the bulk of the membership here is
> >>> probably not the least bit interested to know that you sent an
email
> >>> to anyone who is a member of this list (or the list owner), the
> >>> contents of which they will probably never share.
> >>>
> >>> And personally, I could not be less interested. But I find it
> >>> strange nonetheless.
> >>>
> >>> Yuki
> >>>
> >>> Monday, September 22, 2008, 6:43:26 PM, you wrote:
> >>>
> >>> v> Hi Yuki,
> >>>
> >>> v> You seem quite emotional about emails. I can only imagine
how you
> >>> v> coped last week. Anyway, you just confirmed why I
increasingly feel
> >>> v> this community has changed over the years in terms of its
way of
> >>> v> communicating and sensitivities to rules. I believe there
have been
> >>> v> plenty of other references in this group to private emails,
and
> >>> v> personally I never realized my email would cause such a
reaction.
> >>>
> >>> v> In other words, I won't bother again forwarding references
which I
> >>> v> thought other readers might find interesting. You can calm
down now.
> >>>
> >>> v> PS
> >>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> v> I've send you a private e-mail re my own opinion.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> That would be "I've sent" of course, and highly illuminative
for the
> >>>>> list members, at that. Why would you mention on list that
you sent
> >>>>> someone a message off list? Would you suspect they are not in
> >>>>> receipt of such message? Would you like to get subscribers
to your
> >>>>> off list messages?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I've sent a number of people private emails. And I'm beating
my
> >>>>> benchmark by more than 30 percent.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Phooey.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Yuki
> >>>>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> ------------------------------------
> >>>
> >>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users
only.
> >>>
> >>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> >>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >>>
> >>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
DEVLOG:
> >>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >>>
> >>> For other support material please check also:
> >>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >>> Yahoo! Groups Links
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>
> >> ------------------------------------
> >>
> >> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >>
> >> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> >> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >>
> >> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> >> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >>
> >> For other support material please check also:
> >> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >> Yahoo! Groups Links
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> >
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >
> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >
> > For other support material please check also:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
------------------------------------
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