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Dick,
Thankyou very much.
You have been around a while and must have seen it all and heard it
all several times over.
I liked the article.
I have been over and around this trade many times, but not using
those particular indicators.
I still learnt 1 or 2 new things and reinforced some others
(sometimes you need a fresh view of an old problem to open your eyes
to it a bit wider).
I agree with his core trading philosophies e.g. his idea of "Reality
Based Logic".
If I was recruiting some upcoming traders, for a trading team, the
entry test would be "show me your 30% EOD equities system" (for any
mature economy/market), "now explain to me WHY it works".
It there isn't an underlying logic, based on market behaviour, then
it is probably a statistical fluke.
My concern with computer/AT trading is that it is fine when it is a
means to an end but it could become counter productive if it becomes
an end in itself.
I haven't rushed to it because I believe I need to keep looking at
the charts to stay in touch with market realities (sometimes trading
seems hard but as soon as I look at the charts it is easy again).
If I became a computer driven trader I would spend more and more time
looking at formulas, and computed results lists, and less and less
time chart reading/market watching.
Re the trade example in the article.
It is based on some of my core trading elements:
- it has a trend (trade with the trend)
- it has momentum
AND in that situation a big countertrend (pullback), with a trend
continuation confirmation, performs better than a small pullback +
TCC that doesn't break the trend (it is a type of contrarian trade -
both pullbacks have a similar W/L but the deep pullbacks produce a
much higher PayOff ratio) - in fact the deeper the better, as long as
it doesn't break a key pivot point.
I found the SFO and the tradingacademy sites by googling....
thanks once again.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "areehoi" <areehoi@xxx> wrote:
>
> Brian.
> You have given Louis (and others) some excellent advice. You may
find
> an article on Trading Systems appearing in the current issue of SFO
> magazine (I'm not sure you receive it in Australia) titled "System
> Trading: Whose on the Other Side" of interest. You'll be amazed at
> the simplicity of a trading system according to the author. I've
> posted it in the files section of the AB Group.
>
> Dick H
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> >
> > Louis,
> >
> > This could be the longest AB thread ever.
> >
> > Some wonderful people gave you some wonderful answers.
> >
> > To help you get some lasting value from it, here is my close.
> >
> >
> > When you started in AB you asked me "can we really make money
trading
> > and how much"
> >
> > I told you >50% but that you should aim for >30% to start with,
as a
> > benchmark.
> > Others said that was not possible.
> > Since then I have gone on to say 100% PA is good and 1000%PA is
> > possible.
> >
> > Now you are asking the same question again!
> >
> > (others have now confirmed they ARE doing over 50% but no one
else is
> > talking about 1000% yet).
> >
> >
> > You asked me where you should start and which approach was better.
> > I told you that you should learn in US EOD stocks because it has
all
> > of the basic elements of trading right there etc
> > I said that RT data was a lot harder to handle and not worth the
> > trouble to newcomers.
> >
> > You went to RT and had trouble.
> >
> > I told you that almost no one trades using 1000's of symbols in
RT
> > (most long term traders narrow down to the indexes, a filtered
> > watchlist of stocks, a small semi-permanent list of stocks, Forex
or
> > Commodities.
> >
> > You tried to use 100's or 1000's of RT stocks for your first
system.
> > You had trouble with that.
> >
> > I told you it would take years.
> > Now after only 7 months you are struggling with it.
> >
> > In this thread I have laid it all out for you (roughly) although
I am
> > only saying what others have said in different ways, but to close
out
> > I will briefly summarise/explain what I have said.
> >
> > Method:
> >
> > a) isolate the key skills required to trade
> > b) practice them repetitively until they become second nature
> > c) positively reinforce your trading alter ego by focus,
simplicity,
> > positive thinking, repetition etc
> >
> > a) is the reason that so few succeed.
> > b) and c) are a piece of cake.
> >
> > It takes so long to isolate the key skills of trading because the
> > subject is so vast and there are so many conflicting opinions AND
> > very few, if any, traders who make it will lay it all out for
anyone.
> >
> > All in all it is like going through a library full of books and
> > distilling the info down to a single Readers Digest.
> >
> > The super traders distill it all down to a tablespoon of gold.
> >
> > This takes a lot of time and many don't have what it takes to see
the
> > wood for the trees.
> >
> > After years I have got it down to the last pile of books (you can
> > easily successfully trade at that level, in fact you can trade
> > reasonably well if you only make it half way through).
> > I only managed that because I was lucky enough to be an intuitive
and
> > this helped me find the shortcuts (I didn't have to read all of
the
> > books).
> >
> > So once again, here is my practical advice to you.
> >
> > Don't take on the whole library - it is overwhelming.
> >
> > Take on one section.
> >
> > Start with US EOD trading, no leverage.
> > After you learn to get >30% there you can then start to learn
> > leveraging stocks (via options OR Single Stock Futures).
> > After you learn that then you can quickly and easily learn
> > Commodities/Futures etc or whatever you want - the trading world
is
> > your oyster.
> >
> > All of the core elements of trading are right there in EOD stocks.
> > If you can't find them there then you are not going to make it
> > anywhere.
> >
> >
> > Re AutoTrading.
> >
> > This is like having your car on auto-pilot.
> > First you have to have a car.
> > Then you have to learn to drive it.
> > Then you can say "now I will automate it and put my feet up while
it
> > drives down the road".
> > You don't just decide to learn autodriving before you fulfil the
> > first two steps.
> >
> >
> > Why not start with commodities?
> >
> > because you will be trying to learn trading and leveraging both
at
> > the same time plus all of the elements of trading are not exposed
the
> > way they are in stocks (you have the complication of seasonality
plus
> > you are limited to 20-30 instruments).
> > In stocks you get a much better feel for trading with the
different
> > cap levels, different volatilities, sectors and global
relationships
> > etc - things you don't see so clearly in other instruments.
> >
> >
> >
> > Why not start in RT?
> >
> > because so much of your time will be taken up with
software/hardware
> > issues when you should be focusing on learning to trade (plenty
of
> > time for RT once you can trade).
> > Also - once you can trade then trading RT bars is barely any
> > different - you can go straight on with it (tick trading is
something
> > else again - only suitable for people who are right at home with
IT
> > skills)
> >
> > Wheh should I learn Money Management?
> >
> > First you have to get a system that can do >=30% when paper
trading
> > i.e. it does that live, for a reasonable period (on data you have
> > never seen before).
> >
> > IF YOU CANT DO THAT FIRST YOU CAN FORGET THE REST AND GIVE UP.
> >
> > Then, if you get that far, you need to learn the basisc of MM
before
> > you start to trade with real money (you can improve your MM based
on
> > your trading experience but you must now the basics before you
start.
> >
> >
> > Realistically, only those with above average aptitude are going
to be
> > able to do that while they are holding down a job (the magnitude
of
> > the task is pretty big unless you have a mentor, a friend or you
have
> > the right stuff to skip through it).
> >
> > All the best with your endeavours,
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> > please excuse me if I don't answer any further questions on the
> > subject.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis P." <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi,
> > >
> > > I was only wondering... Anyone actually making money or making
a
> > living
> > > with AB and trading?
> > >
> > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months now and
> > didn't find
> > > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data, then
> > hourly,
> > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and nothing seems
> > satisfying.
> > > Been searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing seems to
work.
> > >
> > > So... Anyone is making consistent money with this, and if so,
at
> > which
> > > timeframe and how do you do it?
> > >
> > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database; it
seems
> > even
> > > 1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making money
with
> > > 1-minute?
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > >
> > > Louis
> > >
> >
>
------------------------------------
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