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The only way to really answer this question is to get some objective
information, the best that you can. One place is www.collective2.com. The
traders there are forced to place their trades in a transparent and
objective way, and the system even tries to monitor how close you as a
follower can get to what they as the originators are doing. I think there
are some winning systems.
...oh, and 7 months isn't enough...
..oh, and I completely agree with Paul a propos trendlines, support &
resistance
..oh, and I am perhaps getting a little bit better myself....really really
hard.
cs
----- Original Message -----
From: "Thomas Ludwig" <Thomas.Ludwig@xxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 31, 2008 1:16 PM
Subject: Re: SV: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
> Hi people,
>
> I am a discretionary trader myself.
So am I. I'm combining relative strength, trendlines, momentum and
general sentiment (useful websites are http://www.indexindicators.com/
and
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/inv_intel.aspx ),
I place strict stop-loss orders and don't risk too much of my capital
in any single trade. I'm not a full-time trader (only EOD and trading
at next day's open) but I'm making money - not enough money to live
from, though. ;-)
But I can understand Louis' problem: Quite a while ago I started
thinking about trading the systematic way. I've tested and modified
hundreds of trading systems, including, e.g., breakout systems, all
types of adaptive indicators and using ADX or r-squared to distinguish
trending from non-trending situations. Oh, some of them had absolutely
beautiful equity curves after optimization. But most of them failed
miserably after performing an OOS test. And after TJ added walk-forward
analysis (which I've always considered the ultimate reality check since
reading the first edition of Pardo's book) I've applied that approach
to all my systems. Result: So far, I haven't found any system worth
being traded.
I'm not giving up searching for good systems because I think they would
save me valuable time and might make it possible to trade more markets.
But in the meantime I'll stick to my discretionary approach <sigh>.
Regards,
Thomas
>
>
>
> The whole discussion has now evolved to the point of ?know yourself?
> etcetera. Then, why do you argue about discretionary versus system?
> Is it not obvious to you that some people?s personality calls for a
> trading system, while others personality calls for a discretionary
> approach.
>
>
>
> It seems to me that the focus of the discussion has been lost.
>
>
>
> Best regards / JM
>
> _____
>
> Från: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> För sidhartha70
> Skickat: den 31 juli 2008 15:56
> Till: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Ämne: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
>
>
>
> Ohh Paul... I agree about knowing yourself as I said in my answer to
> Brian. But that's a given surely...?? You only learn that from years
> of trading and observing yourself... you can of course become
> informed on the subject of yourself... there's plenty of literature
> on it... Mark Douglas obviously.
>
> But I stand by what I said... you can become a great trader by really
> understanding trendlines, support & resistance in it's many forms and
> studying price & volume action...
>
> I know it... because I've seen it... and I've done it.
>
> You have your techniques Paul... and good luck to you. Great if they
> work for you. For me, this is what has worked for me...
>
> Henrik thanks for your response. Good to see others agree.
>
> Paul, might I suggest you get out more and make some more human
> connections... you'd probably find you'd be happier, less angry, less
> arrogant, less superior and might even enjoy some of this money you
> make trading...
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> ps.com,
>
> "Paul Ho" <paul.tsho@xxx> wrote:
> > I'm still waiting for your to say something sensible, that's of
> > value,
> >
> > > rather than just dig everyone out...???
> >
> > LOL, I just told you. YOu cant become a good trader until you know
> > yourself, really know yourself. Knowing how to draw a few lines
> > makes you a TA guy, not a trader. understanding the market makes
> > you a market analyst. Even know how to develop a system doesnt make
> > you a trader either, you are merely a system developer. When you
> > master yourself, you are on your way to become a real trader.
> > Just because you've been involved in trading for years, seeing
> > others making millions, no more makes your a trader than me an
> > olympian just because I've been watching olypmics for the last 45
> > years. You might think I'm slagging you off, but in years to come,
> > you will find out for yourself whats true.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> > ps.com,
>
> "sidhartha70" <sidhartha70@>
>
> > wrote:
> > > Paul,
> > >
> > > I programme too... nothing wrong with programming and making your
> >
> > life
> >
> > > easier. And nothing wrong with asking for someone to 'throw you a
> > > bone' in that goal... I'm new to AFL. So what??
> > >
> > > I've been involved in trading for many years... market making,
> > > index arbitrage, statistical arbitrage, long/short prop etc..
> > > many years. And some of the best money makers I've ever seen have
> > > been traders, not system traders, who genuinely have a great read
> > > of the market based off tape reading skills... they have achieved
> > > returns, consistently, that systems traders can only dream of...
> > >
> > > I've traded both... systems and otherwise... you can programme
> > > all
> >
> > the
> >
> > > most complicated indictaors you like... they are all based on the
> >
> > same
> >
> > > things tape reading is... which is price & volume action...
> > >
> > > I'm still waiting for your to say something sensible, that's of
> >
> > value,
> >
> > > rather than just dig everyone out...???
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> > > ps.com,
>
> "Paul Ho" <paul.tsho@> wrote:
> > > > learn everything you can
> > > > about trendlines, support & resistance and the old tape reading
> >
> > skills
> >
> > > > and you will be miles ahead of 'system developers' in terms of
> > > > actually understanding the markets and becoming a better
> > > > trader. .......
> > > > So you think understanding a few lines on the chart you will
> >
> > become
> >
> > > a better
> > >
> > > > trader!!!
> > > > So you think understanding the market will make you a better
> >
> > trader!!!
> >
> > > > So you think you are miles ahead just because you know how to
> >
> > draw a
> >
> > > lines
> > >
> > > > rather than a system trader who write a few hundred lines of
> >
> > codes.
> >
> > > > NONE OF THE ABOVE WILL MAKE YOU A GOOD TRADER
> > > > YOU WILL ONLY BECOME A GOOD TRADER IF YOU KNOW YOUSELF.
> > > >
> > > > I'LL KEEP THIS IN A SAFE PLACE AND USE IT AS A REPLY WHEN YOU
> > > > ASK
> > >
> > > SOMEONE TO
> > >
> > > > THROW YOU A BONE.
> > > >
> > > > ________________________________
> > > >
> > > > From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> > > > ps.com
> >
> > [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> > ps.com]
> >
> > > > On Behalf Of sidhartha70
> > > > Sent: Thursday, 31 July 2008 10:47 PM
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> > > > ps.com Subject: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Louis,
> > > >
> > > > Here's my tip... worth it's weight in gold. I've been doing
> >
> > this for
> >
> > > > a
> > > > long time...
> > > >
> > > > Stop looking for the holy grail system... learn everything
> >
> > you can
> >
> > > > about trendlines, support & resistance and the old tape
> >
> > reading
> >
> > > > skills
> > > > and you will be miles ahead of 'system developers' in terms of
> > > > actually understanding the markets and becoming a better
> >
> > trader.
> >
> > > > Too many people spend far too much time trying to develop
> >
> > a 'system'
> >
> > > > rather than becoming a better trader.
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>
> > > > ps.com <mailto:amibroker%40yahoogroups.com> , "Louis P."
> > > > <rockprog80@>
> >
> > wrote:
> > > > > Hi,
> > > > >
> > > > > I was only wondering... Anyone actually making money or
> >
> > making a
> >
> > > > living
> > > >
> > > > > with AB and trading?
> > > > >
> > > > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months now
> >
> > and
> >
> > > > didn't find
> > > >
> > > > > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data,
> >
> > then
> >
> > > > hourly,
> > > >
> > > > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and nothing seems
> > > >
> > > > satisfying.
> > > >
> > > > > Been searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing seems
> >
> > to
> >
> > > > work.
> > > >
> > > > > So... Anyone is making consistent money with this, and if
> >
> > so, at
> >
> > > > which
> > > >
> > > > > timeframe and how do you do it?
> > > > >
> > > > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database; it
> >
> > seems
> >
> > > > even
> > > >
> > > > > 1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making
> >
> > money
> >
> > > > with
> > > >
> > > > > 1-minute?
> > > > >
> > > > > Thanks,
> > > > >
> > > > > Louis
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