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Hi scourt2000,
I don't disagree with most of what you said but I think you are
misrepresenting the described trading technique.
The method is based on Bollinger Bands and sound Price Action techniques.
The stop is not a fixed amount, it is placed 1 tick beyond the
opposite extreme of the entry bar, a standard Price Action technique.
There are 3 sample trades discussed.
1st: initial stop size 1.5, 1/2 off at 1.0 pts, other half off at 3.25
pts, total for trade = 4.25 pts.
2nd: initial stop size 1.75, 1/2 off at 1.0 pts, other half off at BE,
total for trade = 1.0 pts.
3rd: initial stop size 1.5, 1/2 off at 1.0 pts, other half off at 3.0
pts, total for trade = 4.0 pts.
This is not in agreement with your comments about the method.
The author uses a scaling out trade management style which combines
the low risk/high win percentage of scalping with larger profit
potential of swing trading.
Based on my examination of various charts from 5 mins to weekly, the
technique seems sound with profits about 75% of the time.
I would not have made this post if I thought the system did not have
potential. Everything must be thoroughly tested before trading with
real money (including simulation trading). Anything else it just gambling.
As far as the authors commercial website goes, I have no interest in
it and I believe most members of this group have no interest in it.
Just because someone is a trading educator does not mean they cannot
trade but even if the author is the worst trader in the world, that
does not mean this method does not produce profits. You have to judge
the method on its own merits not based on who is describing it.
Bill
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "scourt2000" <stevehite@xxx> wrote:
>
>
> If you follow the link to its conclusion and find the original author's
> website, take a look at her trading stats this week on the ES. She's
> got 7 years futures trading experience and she's taking 2 pt stop
> losses and half-offs at 1 pt? That's not good.
>
> With a good edge, you can expect to daytrade the ES with no more than a
> 1.50 pt stop loss, a 1.5 to 2.0 payoff ratio and a long-term winning
> pct. average of 60%.
>
> Please, don't ever try and trade the ES with a payoff ratio of 0.50
> unless you can sustain a 70% to 80% long-term winning pct because a
> more reasonable 60% winning pct with a 1.5 payoff ratio will make more
> gains than a 70%-er with a 0.50 payoff ratio with far less stress
> involved.
>
> Try all the backtesting on ideas you like and you'll see a general
> trend in the good edges:
>
> 1. High winning pcts. come with < 1.0 payoff ratios.
> 2. High payoff ratios come with low winning pcts.
> 3. Systems in the 50-65% winning pct. window come with 1.5 to 2.0
> payoff ratios.
>
> And, by the way, I'm speaking to the 2-3 ES contract and 1-2 ER2
> contract traders out there trying to make a living at this, not any of
> you who consider yourself big fishes where you play games with
> unreasonable stop losses and averaging down in your positions.
>
> Just be careful of people freely giving you an edge and then turns
> around and has a website-for-profit to "teach" you how to be a "market
> winner". Because I take one look at her money management, knowing
> full well what's doable on daytrading the ES/ER2 for 5 years, and it
> becomes obvious why she's got a secondary service to teach.
>
> Realistically, it takes anywhere from 2 to 4 years to get good
> (definition: you make a living just with your trading) at futures
> trading, depending upon how messed up your emotional insides were when
> you started. Most drop out within 2 years due to bad money management
> and continually trading with bad edges because they believed too much
> in some other person trying to sell them on their methods instead of
> believing in themselves and learning to trust their own experiences
> over what anyone else had to say.
>
> [I'm not into back-and-forths when I speak from the heart like this. I
> could be wrong, but after 5 years of facing the ES and ER2 in real-
> time, discretionary daytrading, I highly doubt it.]
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bilbo0211" <wjdandreta@> wrote:
> >
> >
> http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/eminis/commentary/favorite_strategy/
> Eminis-Teresa-Appleton.cfm
> >
> > I have not back tested it but checked it on a variety of charts and it
> > seems to work quite well to get at least a scalp. In a strong trend it
> > generates very few signals but intraday strong trends that last all
> > day are rare.
> >
> > If I get time, I will back test it and post the results.
> >
> > Bill
> >
>
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