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kailash pareek wrote:
>
> Well, i love arguments. because it gives us good things.
>
>
>
> Well, nothing is for sure here. you see u optimized 10 years data and
> there was only 3 conse.. looser trade. Now think u start trading and
> those three trades r ur 1st 3 trades. u loose n lost confidence.
>
>
>
> So, nothing is for sure.
>
>
>
> just a penny
>
>
>
> johnny
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----
> From: wavemechanic <timesarrow@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Friday, May 9, 2008 6:15:45 PM
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
>
> *We all deal with correlation not causation.*
> ****
> *Bill*
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> *From:* Yuki Taga <mailto:yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> *To:* wavemechanic <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> *Sent:* Friday, May 09, 2008 8:28 AM
> *Subject:* Re: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
>
> Fi-Fi-Fi-Fibonacci? Truly the astrology of TA, but with even less
> logic.
>
> Yuki
>
> Friday, May 9, 2008, 8:57:30 PM, you wrote:
>
> w> I don't buy that (i.e., "both right, but not at the same time").
> w> When used properly price levels (e.g., S&R, Fibonacci, Gann, etc.)
> w> and momentum provide distinctly different information and are not
> w> duplicative. As a result, there is no reason not to use them
> w> together and I for one always do.
>
> w> Bill
> w> ----- Original Message -----
> w> From: brian_z111
> w> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> w> Sent: Thursday, May 08, 2008 7:54 PM
> w> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Jake Bernstein Momentum formula
>
>
> w> As Yuki said, "they are both right, but not at the same time".
>
> w> The company, and dicussion, around the coffee table is good
> but as
> w> Ralph Vince said "trading is not an intellectual exercise, it
> is more
> w> like a street fight".
>
> w> Forget right or wrong - get in there and beat the heck out of
> every
> w> opponent (mean reversion, trend trading, Hurst, S/R) what
> ever comes
> w> along.
>
> w> (that means work them over with backtesting - what is the
> most you
> w> can squeeze out of that style e.g. a reversion to mean trade
> - can
> w> you do better if you change it up a bit - when you reach
> exhaustion
> w> point with that trade then you know exactly what its limits
> are - be
> w> honest with yourself - have you really squeezed all of the
> juice out
> w> of that style - after a while you start to see that sometimes
> the
> w> same opponent returns in another outfit and you can't be
> bothered
> w> beating up on the same old foe over and over).
>
> w> When they are all defeated keep your eyes peeled and your nerves
> w> steeled for any new challengers who are coming along and give
> them a
> w> hiding too.
>
> w> P.S. anyone can see my trading biases but they can also see I am
> w> thinking about, and paying respect to, trading styles that
> don't come
> w> naturally to me.
>
> w> brian_z
>
>
> w> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, "Louis Préfontaine"
> w> <rockprog80@x ..> wrote:
> w> >
> w> > Thanks Brian. Indeed, that looks like prehistoric stuff...
> w> >
> w> > BTW, what is your opinion about the S/R breakout vs
> reversion to
> w> mean
> w> > debate?
> w> >
> w> > Thanks,
> w> >
> w> > Louis
> w> >
> w> > 2008/5/8 brian_z111 <brian_z111@x ..>:
> w> >
> w> > > If your trading system rules are based on things like
> "buy when
> w> the
> w> > > short term moving ave crosses the long term moving ave".
> w> > >
> w> > > The MA is looking back so many periods to make its
> calculation
> w> e.g. MA
> w> > > (C,15) is looking back 15 periods.
> w> > >
> w> > > If you test a range of MA periods, to select your best MA
> w> crossover
> w> > > system, then you are optimising the lookback period (at
> least
> w> that is
> w> > > what I mean).
> w> > >
> w> > > brian_z
> w> > >
> w> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> <amibroker%
> w> 40yahoogroups. com>, "Louis
> w> > > Préfontaine"
> w> > > <rockprog80@> wrote:
> w> > > >
> w> > > > Hi Brian and everyone,
> w> > > >
> w> > > > What exactly do you mean by "optimisation of lookback
> period"?
> w> > > >
> w> > > > I had a lot of fun reading this thread. I wonder what
> is better:
> w> > > > support/resistance breakout or reversion to mean.
> Worked with
> w> > > both; don't
> w> > > > know yet what works better. I've seen people been sure
> of their
> w> > > opinions,
> w> > > > but I'd like to read some arguments...
> w> > > >
> w> > > > Louis
> w> > > >
> w> > > > 2008/5/8 brian_z111 <brian_z111@>:
> w> > > >
> w> > > > > It's just an opinion, but it is based on observation.
> w> > > > >
> w> > > > > I'm referring to systems designed by optimising lookback
> w> periods.
> w> > > > >
> w> > > > > I'm happy to be proved wrong ...so you are saying we can
> w> achieve
> w> > > > > better than 30-40%PA, on long term average (through
> various
> w> market
> w> > > > > cycles) using 'optimisation of lookback period'
> techniques?
> w> (EOD,
> w> > > no
> w> > > > > leveraging).
> w> > > > >
> w> > > > > brian_z
> w> > > > >
> w> > > > >
> w> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> <amibroker%
> w> 40yahoogroups. com><amibroker%
> w> > > 40yahoogroups. com>,
> w> > >
> w> > > > > "bilbo0211" <bilbod@> wrote:
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > "I will stick to my prediction that around 30%PA EOD
> w> trading is
> w> > > a
> w> > > > > > limit for indicators that use lookback periods and
> that to
> w> > > achieve
> w> > > > > > more than this requires a different approach (as I
> say you
> w> are
> w> > > both
> w> > > > > > correct except I believe that Steve is talking
> about >30%PA
> w> > > > > returns)."
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > Is this just your opinion or do you have something that
> w> > > approaches
> w> > > > > > 'scientific proof' of this allegation?
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > In "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing"
> by J M
> w> Hurst,
> w> > > the
> w> > > > > > author claims the theoretical maximum annual ROI
> for stock
> w> > > trading
> w> > > > > is
> w> > > > > > 2400%. ROI is directly related to the holding
> period for
> w> each
> w> > > trade
> w> > > > > > and being fully invested at all times (the 'Magic'
> is in the
> w> > > power
> w> > > > > of
> w> > > > > > compounding) .
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > Hurst recorded the results of a 6 week real time
> trading
> w> > > experiment
> w> > > > > in
> w> > > > > > which his performance trading high beta stocks
> approached
> w> his
> w> > > > > > theoretical maximum annual ROI.
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > Hurst waited until the dominant cycles in his trading
> w> instrument
> w> > > > > were
> w> > > > > > in alignment before trading (this is also called
> multiple
> w> time
> w> > > frame
> w> > > > > > or multiple fractal alignment). He primarily used
> daily and
> w> > > weekly
> w> > > > > charts.
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > The theoretical maximum ROI is actually much higher
> than
> w> 2400%
> w> > > if
> w> > > > > you
> w> > > > > > use intraday charts and leveraged trading instruments.
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > If you look in the Amibroker Trading System Yahoo
> group, you
> w> > > will
> w> > > > > find
> w> > > > > > a poll of results of people's mechanical trading
> systems.
> w> IIRC,
> w> > > the
> w> > > > > > best ones listed returned over 400% per year.
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > Bill
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> <amibroker%
> w> 40yahoogroups. com><amibroker%
> w> > > 40yahoogroups. com>,
> w> > > > > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > 20 - (- 9.3_ == approx delta 30% PA in my books.
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > Thanks Yuki for confirming this.
> w> > > > > > > Now I don't have to post a 30% system (as I promised
> w> Louis) to
> w> > > > > prove
> w> > > > > > > my benchmark is correct.
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > Actually I agree with both you and Steve (the real
> w> problem is
> w> > > > > > > semantics since IMO close analysis would show
> that most
> w> of us
> w> > > are
> w> > > > > > > moementum traders and also that most of us are
> using a
> w> kind of
> w> > > > > S/R in
> w> > > > > > > some way - the difference is how we perceive and
> define
> w> these
> w> > > > > things).
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > I will stick to my prediction that around 30%PA EOD
> w> trading
> w> > > is a
> w> > > > > > > limit for indicators that use lookback periods
> and that to
> w> > > > > achieve
> w> > > > > > > more than this requires a different approach (as
> I say
> w> you are
> w> > > > > both
> w> > > > > > > correct except I believe that Steve is talking
> about >30%
> w> PA
> w> > > > > returns).
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > (Steve - care to confirm?)
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > brian_z
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com
> <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> <amibroker%
> w> 40yahoogroups. com><amibroker%
> w> > > 40yahoogroups. com>, Yuki
> w> > >
> w> > > > > Taga <yukitaga@> wrote:
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > Gee, then I guess I should give back my ~20
> percent a
> w> year
> w> > > that
> w> > > > > is
> w> > > > > > > > largely based on short-term momentum swings,
> yes? (I'm
> w> > > sitting
> w> > > > > plus
> w> > > > > > > > 13 percent YTD this year already, as of yesterday,
> w> versus -
> w> > > 9.3
> w> > > > > > > > percent for my Nikkei 225 benchmark.)
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > You do have to be agile however. And you cannot
> overstay
> w> > > your
> w> > > > > > > > welcome. But the money is there for momentum
> systems if
> w> > > > > designed
> w> > > > > > > > and tested properly.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > "Support" exists, but everyone knows where it is.
> w> Exactly
> w> > > > > where it
> w> > > > > > > > is. And somebody (I'll leave it to you to guess
> who) is
> w> > > going
> w> > > > > to
> w> > > > > > > > ring the bell and tell you that (resistance
> failed) or
> w> > > (support
> w> > > > > > > > failed). What are you going to do, then? You're
> going to
> w> > > stop
> w> > > > > > > > yourself out of course. With a loser.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > Which is likely to be more profitable, and for
> a longer
> w> > > period
> w> > > > > of
> w> > > > > > > > time? Systems that compel you to do the
> psychologically
> w> > > > > difficult,
> w> > > > > > > > or systems that suggest that you do the patently
> w> obvious?
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > Is there anyone beyond 7th grade that doesn't
> know where
> w> > > > > support and
> w> > > > > > > > resistance is? Are there great systems that
> rely on
> w> widely
> w> > > > > known
> w> > > > > > > > community knowledge?
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > Look for a system that has good metrics, but a
> system
> w> that
> w> > > also
> w> > > > > > > > suggests that what you need to do will be
> w> psychologically
> w> > > > > difficult
> w> > > > > > > > for you to do, in spite of having back-tested
> results
> w> > > > > indicating
> w> > > > > > > that
> w> > > > > > > > you are foolish if you *don't* do it. Then you
> are good
> w> to
> w> > > go,
> w> > > > > as
> w> > > > > > > > they say. Good to go as long as you do it, of
> course.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > If your system is easy to follow (by that, I
> mean that
> w> it's
> w> > > > > > > > psychologically easy for you to make the
> trades), it's
> w> > > probably
> w> > > > > a
> w> > > > > > > > loser. And vice-versa. The best systems have good
> w> metrics,
> w> > > yet
> w> > > > > > > > despite that they almost defy the trader
> w> (psychologically)
> w> > > to
> w> > > > > make
> w> > > > > > > > the trades. There is no free lunch.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > Yuki
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > Thursday, May 8, 2008, 11:50:01 AM, you wrote:
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> Anthony,
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> Do yourself a big favor. Don't waste your
> precious
> w> time
> w> > > on
> w> > > > > this
> w> > > > > > > > s> earth with this kind of drivel. Chasing
> price with
> w> > > > > momentum
> w> > > > > > > > s> indicators is not going to get you where you
> want to
> w> be.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> Coming up with a support/resistance system
> is all you
> w> > > need
> w> > > > > to
> w> > > > > > > make
> w> > > > > > > > s> whatever you want from the markets.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> I've seen hundreds of traders get wiped out
> trying
> w> to go
> w> > > on
> w> > > > > the
> w> > > > > > > path
> w> > > > > > > > s> you're following and all of the successful
> traders
> w> I've
> w> > > been
> w> > > > > > > around
> w> > > > > > > > s> in the e-mini futures have used S/R as the
> w> foundation of
> w> > > > > their
> w> > > > > > > > s> trading methodology.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> And, above all, embrace your emotions in
> trading
> w> because
> w> > > > > they
> w> > > > > > > teach
> w> > > > > > > > s> you what you should and shouldn't do going
> forward.
> w> > > > > Computers
> w> > > > > > > learn
> w> > > > > > > > s> nothing while you learn from every win and
> loss you
> w> make.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> Finding an edge in trading is easy. It's
> only hard if
> w> > > > > you're
> w> > > > > > > using a
> w> > > > > > > > s> computer to find a needle in a haystack
> because you
> w> > > didn't
> w> > > > > make
> w> > > > > > > a
> w> > > > > > > > s> good enough investment in real-time
> observations of
> w> the
> w> > > > > markets
> w> > > > > > > while
> w> > > > > > > > s> researching an edge you'd like to trade..
> That makes
> w> all
> w> > > > > the
> w> > > > > > > > s> difference in the world for knowing what
> works and
> w> what
> w> > > > > doesn't.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> You'll come up with 10 edges to trade if you
> put the
> w> > > time in
> w> > > > > to
> w> > > > > > > > s> experience a live market on a regular basis
> without
> w> > > trying
> w> > > > > so
> w> > > > > > > hard.
> w> > > > > > > > s> It will bring out your imagination and
> creativity to
> w> find
> w> > > > > what
> w> > > > > > > you're
> w> > > > > > > > s> looking for.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> I wish someone had told me that 4.5 years
> ago when I
> w> > > started
> w> > > > > > > trading
> w> > > > > > > > s> the ER2 e-mini. It would have saved me a lot
> of time
> w> > > > > chasing
> w> > > > > > > > s> nonsense.
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > > > s> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxx ps.com<amibroker%
> <mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx%3Camibroker%>
> w> 40yahoogroups. com><amibroker%
> w> > > 40yahoogroups. com>,
> w> > >
> w> > > > > "ihsaham" <ihsaham@> wrote:
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> Hai Tomasz,
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> This is simple Jake Bernstein Momentum
> Formula for
> w> chart
> w> > > and
> w> > > > > > > > s> scanner.
> w> > > > > > > > >> Please help me give arrow buy and sell. Buy
> arrow is
> w> > > Green
> w> > > > > > > colour
> w> > > > > > > > s> and
> w> > > > > > > > >> Sell Arrow is Red Colour.
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> I really appreciate and thanks for you in
> advance.
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> Best Regards,
> w> > > > > > > > >> Anthony Idic
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> _SECTION_BEGIN( " $ Momentum ");
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> /* Bernstein Momentum Indicator */
> w> > > > > > > > >> /* Set Scaling to Automatic, Show dates On,
> Percent
> w> On,
> w> > > > > Middle
> w> > > > > > > On */
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> Title = "Bernstein MOM Close - Ref(Close,-7) ";
> w> > > > > > > > >> GraphXSpace = 5;
> w> > > > > > > > >> Graph0 = MA(Close - Ref(Close,-7) ,1);
> w> > > > > > > > >> Graph0Style = 5;
> w> > > > > > > > >> Graph0Color = 29;
> w> > > > > > > > >> Graph1 = MA(Graph0,5) ;
> w> > > > > > > > >> Graph1Style = 1;
> w> > > > > > > > >> Graph1Color = 32;
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> DaysAgo =Optimize("DaysAgo" ,-28,-40, -16,4);
> w> > > > > > > > >> Fast = Optimize("Fast" , 1, 1,5,1);
> w> > > > > > > > >> Slow = Optimize("Slow" ,28,16,40, 4);
> w> > > > > > > > >> /* Note: It is merely a coincidence that
> DaysAgo and
> w> Slow
> w> > > > > use
> w> > > > > > > the
> w> > > > > > > > >> same parameter set. */
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> Buy = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo)
> ,Fast),
> w> > > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo) ,Slow) );
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> Sell = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo)
> ,Slow),
> w> > > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo) ,Fast) );
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> Short = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo)
> ,Slow),
> w> > > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo) ,Fast) );
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > > >> Cover = Cross( MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo)
> ,Fast),
> w> > > > > > > > >> MA(Close - Ref(Close,DaysAgo) ,Slow) );
> w> > > > > > > > >> _SECTION_END( );
> w> > > > > > > > >>
> w> > > > > > > >
> w> > > > > > >
> w> > > > > >
> w> > > > >
> w> > > > >
> w> > > > >
> w> > > >
> w> > >
> w> > >
> w> > >
> w> >
>
>
>
> w> ------------ --------- --------- ------
>
> w> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> w> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> w> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com <http://amibroker.com/>
>
> w> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> w> http://www.amibroke r.com/devlog/
> <http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/>
>
> w> For other support material please check also:
> w> http://www.amibroke r.com/support. html
> <http://www.amibroker.com/support.html>
> w> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
> w> --
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>
>
>
>
>
> ------------ --------- --------- ------
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com <http://amibroker.com/>
>
> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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>
> For other support material please check also:
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> <http://www.amibroker.com/support.html>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
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>
>
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TEch_._,___
Thech Analysis is more art than science.( Can you optimize just
art?)
S&R, Fibonacci, Gann, etc.(including support and resistance )
not a science or scientific model (it is pseudoscience )!!!
Not a good scientific model for price movement.( One example of
successful model
is the Black-Scoles model for Options, at least first step) .
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