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"IS metrics are always good because we keep optimizing until they
are" (or words to that effect by HB) which is true.
It is not until we submit the system to an unknown sample, either an
OOS test, paper or live trading that we validate the system.
Discussing your points:
IMO we are talking about two different trading approaches, or styles
(there is no reason we can't understand both very well).
One is the search for a good system, via optimization, with the
attendant subsequent tuning of the system to match a changing market.
If I understand Howard correctly he is an exponent of this style.
It is my prediction that where we are optimising, using lookback
periods, that the max possible PA% return will be around 30, maybe
40, for EOD trading.
Do we ever optimise anything other than indicators with lookback
periods?
If so that might be a different story.
Bastardising Marshall McCluhans famous line I could say "the
optimization is the method".
It is also possible to conceptually optimize the system, before
testing, to the point that little, or no, optimization is required
(experienced traders with a certain disposition do this quite
comfortably but it doesn't suit the inexperienced and/or those who
don't have the temperament for it).
So, if a system has a sound reason to exist, and it is not optimized
at all, and it has a statistically valid IS test then it his highly
likely to be a robust system, especially if it is robust across a
range of stocks/instruments.
The chances that this is due to pure luck are probably longer than
the chance that an optimized IS test, with a confirming OOS test, is
also a chance event.
However, if I had plenty of data e.g. I was an intraday trader, then
I would go ahead and do an OOS test anyway (since the cost is
negligible)
Re testing on several stocks.
If the system is 'good' on one symbol, (the sample size is valid) and
it is also good on a second symbol (also with a valid sample size) is
that any different from performing an IS and an OOS test?
For stock trading, I call the relative performance, on a set of
symbols, 'vertical' testing as compared to 'horizontal' testing
(where horizontal testing is an equity curve).
Yes, if an IS test, with no optimization, beat the buy & hold on
every occasion (or a significant number of times) in a vertical test
and the sum of that test was statistically valid and the horizontal
test (the combined equity curve) was 'good' it would give you
something to think about for sure.
If some of the symbols, in the vertical stack, had contrary returns,
compared to the bias of my system, I probably would start to get a
little excited.
(I think perhaps you were alluding to something along those lines).
BTW did you know that the Singapore Slingers play in the Australian
basketball league?
Cheers,
brian_z
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