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I maintain the view that algorithms exist in nature, and that people who
develop algorighms are only discovering another one of nature's secrets.
When my son first showed me Amibroker several years ago, I looked at charts
with Stochastics, and RSI, and I became convinced that mother nature has
algorithms that can find the central core of all of that volatility.
I have yet to discover mother nature's algorighms, but my attempts have led
me to some conclusions.
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My results WERE BEST when I "AVERAGED THE LAST SEVERAL HUNDRED DAYS OF
ACTIVITY"
and watched the LAST 9 DAYS>of the performance of this average of hundreds
of days.
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My results WERE LESS GOOD when I "AVERAGED OF LAST 9 DAYS OF ACTIVITY"
and watched the LAST 9 DAYS>of the performance of this average of only 9
days.
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Hope this helps someone. Ron D
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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 20, 2008 10:25
PM
Subject: [amibroker] Philosophical
question
Hi group,
I just began reading Howard Bandy's book (even
though I did not finish Aronson's book yet...), and a somehow philosophical
question came to my mind when he speaks about the market's inefficiency and
how we must take advantage of it. He talks both about moving
averages and breakout, and I was wondering which one of the two techniques do
you think is the more promising for such a system?
I ask this because
as far as subjective technical analysis is concerned, I am more used with
breakout techniques. But the real inefficiency in breakout techniques
comes from time, that is if one can act quickly enough to make a profit from
the sudden change in price. But from my experience it seems to be more
difficult with EOD or hourly data. And it is less profitable for someone
(like me) who is using options, which tend to anticipate the change quicker
than it really happens.
Moving averages techniques, on the other side,
seems a bit mystical to me, and maybe a bit too simple or too « easy ».
I don't know much about them...
But anyway, my question is: which one
of those two techniques do you prefer, or do you use both for entering a
trade, or shorting a trade? What can be a good way to trade for someone
(like me) who wants to trade hourly data and can't always get the beginning of
a breakout?
Thanks!
Louis
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