Re: [amibroker] Leading indicators, AmiBroker Email List Archive

Dear Yuki, Herman & Wavemechanic,

Thanks for the spontaneous replies. Understand that no math formula can predict 100% sure the mind of millions traders, what they are going to do next based only on past hi, lo, O, C and vol data. If the prediction is more than 50% correct, I think traders are very happy. Let us use the simple method of linear regression just between price and vol. The two variables must have in most cases positive correlation, and few cases have negative correlation (which are also signals). Using this R squared as indicator and vol as trigger, we can expect what is going to happen with price, for example when all of a sudden vol rapidly increased. I am a newbie, I am sure there are indicators (that I am not aware of ) using this logic of thinking, either are available or being formulated for further improvement.

A good formula is valuable when few people know it; however when it is widely known, maybe it is not so valuable anymore.

Regards,

Kethek

----- Original Message ----
From: Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: Kethek Ogleng <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 14, 2008 4:08:02 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Leading indicators

Hi Kethek,

Think about it ...

What indicator could possibly be leading, since *all* indicators are
based on activity that has already taken place? (already transpired
input results in the definition of current "indicator" value)

What *you* have to decide is, if a certain indicator reaches a
certain level or position, how likely is that to predict some change
or continuation that you can take advantage of in the future. Not
all indicators are created equal.

After that, it's mostly money management, guts, and experience.

There is no such thing as a leading indicator, including the
fundamental indicators that are called (and sold as) just that. It's
a dream. No one can build a machine that sees into the future. The
very idea is preposterous. All they do is build a model that has a
reasonable (but not infallible) chance of success.

There are *NO* leading indicators available for *anyone* on *any*
platform. When you accept this truth, you will be one step closer to
hearing a sound that some describe using the Roman letters 'AUM'.

If you want some foolproof "leading indicator", please do a full Net
search on "Holy Grail".

Yuki

Friday, March 14, 2008, 4:55:55 PM, you wrote:

KO> Dear Thomasz and Brian,

KO> I have explored indicators that I am aware of, but I have not
KO> found single leading indicator. Eventhough I hv changed the
KO> parameters, , the indicators were all lagged. The fastest
KO> indicator that I am aware of is Heikin-Ashi, but still it is not
KO> leading indicator. In the best of your knowledge and experience,
KO> what are leading indicators available for AB users (or at least
KO> faster that Heikin-Ashi) ? Logically (for non-IT guy like me), the
KO> leading indicator must contain price linear regression and volume components.
KO> I am aware that if someone had it, he or she must be a
KO> multibillioner and wouldnt share with us. Ha ha ha

KO> Regards,
KO> Kethek

KO>
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