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I added some extra comments, relevant to the "ideal trade"
discussion, to the end of the temporary UKB post:
"Pattern Recognition Across TimeFrames".
It seems to fit in there.
I also show how the mathematical antecedents of PowerFactor are a
product of the powers (and not a ratio as could be assumed from the
way I have written it, using notation, in the forum)
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> The concept is not dissimilar to the "identify ideal entries"
example
> in Howard's book (ch 7, "Entries and Exits", p105 - 107).
>
> What I am talking about is an extension of what Howard has
presented
> there.
>
> (In my scheme of things I would include it in a section
> under "benchmarking".
>
> brian_z
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Dennis Brown <see3d@> wrote:
> >
> > Brian,
> >
> > Points taken --though, I have a goal of 500% average in my
trading
> > simulations. I also have a theoretical trading mode for how good
> the
> > entries are with perfect exits and how good the exits are with
> perfect
> > entries. That gives me a real good idea about what my upper
limit
> > is. It also lets me explore the profit potential of different
> > timeframes so I can focus on the best ones for my trading style.
> It
> > is good to know what can be achieved so you know when you have
> arrived.
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Dennis
> >
> >
> > On Feb 26, 2008, at 5:18 PM, brian_z111 wrote:
> >
> > > Dennis,
> > >
> > >> No need to argue the point.
> > >
> > > I believe there is a need to argue the point because negative
> > > comments from other traders affect the way we trade and
shouldn't
> go
> > > unchallenged, especially if they not accompanied by objective
> > > evidence.
> > >
> > > I stand by my comment that 300-400%PA is the theoretical upper
> limit,
> > > because if we are accepting actual returns of 40%PA we are not
> aiming
> > > high enough and need to make a mental adjustment.
> > >
> > >> Everyone is right, depending on the
> > >> particular circumstances.
> > >
> > > No, everyone is not right depending on circumstances.
> > > To be 'right' means that our observations can be independently
> > > verified by others.
> > >
> > > If that isn't the case we are only suffering from self-delusion.
> > >
> > > I agree with your points 100%.
> > >
> > > Thnakyou very much for posting them.
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Dennis Brown <see3d@> wrote:
> > >>
> > >> No need to argue the point. Everyone is right, depending on
the
> > >> particular circumstances.
> > >>
> > >> As I have pointed out before, very high returns (>3%/day
> average)
> > > are
> > >> being made by some traders I know using hardly more than a
ruler
> > > for
> > >> their TA --trading trend lines and support and resistance
levels
> > > on
> > >> very short timeframes (seconds to minutes) --and perhaps a
couple
> > > of
> > >> indicators like MACD or CCI. The key is leverage and that the
> > >> winnings are not compounded, but taken off the table and used
to
> > > live
> > >> on, or put into more conservative long term positions. The
> market
> > > can
> > >> not support large dollar compounding more than the average of
the
> > > long
> > >> term growth of the better performing issues. You can skim
large
> %
> > > off
> > >> small $ if you fly below the radar. Greed will not work to
your
> > >> advantage.
> > >>
> > >> Dennis
> > >>
> > >> On Feb 26, 2008, at 9:50 AM, dave_88_1961 wrote:
> > >>
> > >>>
> > >>> 100% can be made in the early years but as the account grows
> > > returns
> > >>> diminish.
> > >>>
> > >>> Dave
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > > wrote:
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>>> A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so fast
that
> > > the
> > >>>>> account balance is larger than all the real estate in the
US
> in
> > > just
> > >>>>> a few years.
> > >>>>
> > >>>> Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired effect
> > > e.g. if
> > >>>> we put it this way, things look a lot different:
> > >>>>
> > >>>> A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on average,
and
> > >>>> trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a home
in
> San
> > >>>> Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area.
> > >>>>
> > >>>> Do you think many traders with that kind of performance would
> > >>>> continue to trade after 10 successful years?
> > >>>>
> > >>>> brian_z
> > >>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" brian_z111@
> wrote:
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> I draw your attention to the following article, especially
> item
> > > 3:
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"?
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from Mark
> Cook.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are we
> fooled
> > > by
> > >>>>> randomness a la Taleb)?
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6 years
> > > before
> > >>>>> that (trading bonds and stock indexes!)
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically achieved
> those
> > >>>>> results was not a particularly outstanding two years for
> > > equities.
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> brian_z
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > > wrote:
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> Howard,
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>>> Any time someone suggests a growth of more than about 40%
> per
> > >>>>> year,
> > >>>>>>> take that with a very large grain of salt.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> I expected you to disagree with my statement.
> > >>>>>> I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the numbers I
> > > quoted
> > >>>>> as
> > >>>>>> the theoretical potential.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> At his website Professor John Price posts audited returns
of
> > >>>> approx
> > >>>>>> 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple
Techno-
> > >>>>>> fundamental methods (as I recall the figures).
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> The caveat there is that the sample period is short and
> > > selective.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with less
than
> > > half
> > >>>>> an
> > >>>>>> hour a days work and no effort to use any other timing
> > > mechanisms.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> If your statement is true we can all give up any further
> > > efforts
> > >>>>> and
> > >>>>>> simple trade his method.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying market
> (due
> > >>>> to
> > >>>>>> franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on
average
> > >>>> over
> > >>>>>> longer time periods.
> > >>>>>> Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is 20-25%
> > > without
> > >>>>> any
> > >>>>>> ongoing effort required what-so-ever.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper
Business
> > > 2001
> > >>>>> the
> > >>>>>> first page of the first chapter in the book quotes Stuart
> > > Walton,
> > >>>>>> fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average annual
> > > compounded
> > >>>>>> return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years during
the
> > >>>>> nineties.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> As I understand it Schwager's books are well researched and
> > > based
> > >>>>> on
> > >>>>>> verifiable case studies?
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> I only opened the book at the first chapter and didn't
need
> to
> > > go
> > >>>>> any
> > >>>>>> further or to his other 2 books containing similar
> testimonies.
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>> brian_z
> > >>>>>>
> > >>>>>
> > >>>>
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users
> only.
> > >>>
> > >>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly
to
> > >>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > >>>
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> > >>>
> > >>> For other support material please check also:
> > >>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > >>>
> > >>> Yahoo! Groups Links
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>>
> > >>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
only.
> > >
> > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > >
> > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
DEVLOG:
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> > >
> > > For other support material please check also:
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> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
>
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