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Hi Brian,
I understand what you say; the perfect trade... This is like the perfect chess game! But what about chess tournament, when you can play 2 6-hour games a day for 5 days in a row... You can't get to perfection then; you need to win, that's all that matters. I see the market a bit this way; there is no way to make a perfect trade as you never know the bottom or the high BEFORE acting so IMO the best thing to do is to "try" to do our best.
But you might be right. When I'll have 300K in my bank account and will feel comfortable about my life and trade, I might be looking for something else, like the perfect trade. A bit like when a chess world champion writes a book on theory to educate others about certain aspect of the game. But the big difference is that you can't get famous with the formula because if you share it you're doomed.
BTW, I always wondered. Would it be possible that some very talented TA programmer who built a wonderful system would "give" it to humanity before his death? What would be the consequence of such a thing happening? I think that since we are now 25 years in the age of personal computer such thing might happen in the future. I wonder what would happen.
I like wavemechanic ideas of simple TA, with good money management etc etc. but I know some about TA and tried some "simple" systems but couldn't get satisfying enough results. Always huge drawdowns, or not enough profits... This is why I am looking for something more complex and when I look at what others are programming I know that complexity is probably part of the key. (Althought what looks complex from my point of view isn't from someone else. That remains me of the kids who were amazed when I and a friend (who is master) were playing the 18 first moves of the King's Indian Defence instantly at chess...)
Louis
2008/2/26, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxxxxxxxx>:
That's OK.
I understand your subtle points and your humour.
Rather a false paradise (cold comfort that you share it with 90% of
humanity).
Dennis and I are not focused on the money.
We are in pursuit of the perfect trade (like Federer when he is
playing tennis - he watches the ball and doesn't dream about the
winning cheque).
(I told my wife how interesting it is to meet people like you on the
net and what you had mentally achieved with playing chess - she was
very interested in that).
best regards
brian_z *:-)
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis Préfontaine"
<rockprog80@xxx> wrote:
>
> Hi Brian,
>
> I think I understand your point, but even 100%, that can be a lot
of money.
> 100% of 500K is 250K each year and that's enough to live with some
comfort.
> Maybe it's the difference of age or the fact that we are not at the
same
> point in life or trading, but when you talk about trading been
boredom and
> looking for something else to do this is actually my vision of
paradise:
> doing nothing but following my system, havinf a 9-4 job that can be
done
> from a laptop on the beach, and a lot of money to pay whatever I
need to
> pay. This is paradise to me.
>
> I didn't mean to say that you should sell me or anyone else your
original
> ideas! As I said, I am not 100% fluent in English so sometimes I
can make
> mistakes... When I said « If sky is to be the limit, then bring me
there! »
> I was talking about the market bringing me there, not
litteraly "you". Of
> course I wouldn't mind if someone could help me doing it but I am
> intelligent enough to know that if I had the Holy Grail I wouldn't
give it
> for free to someone if it took me 10 years to find it. Sometimes
the value
> of something is also related to the value of work that was put in
it. Well,
> so thought Marx and I guess he was right on this! ;-)
>
> My goal is to get rich. Not rich enough to have a ferrari or
splashing my
> money around. No. Been rich enough to get wealthy, to live in
comfort,
> have a family, and finally been able to get rewarded for what I
think I am
> good at. That's difficult. But I am happy to see that it is
possible to
> get such results and I hope I will be one of those lucky ones who
can live
> this dream!
>
> Thanks for the insight
> Louis
>
>
>
>
> 2008/2/26, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxx>:
> >
> > > Just a completely naive question here. If one could make 300-
400%
> > >a year,
> > > why would he still be here on the internet helping others and
> > >trying to make
> > > his program better.
> >
> > That is a fair question.
> >
> > I might be crazy.
> >
> > Most of the AB users who are doing > 50% aren't talking about it.
> > They don't talk because it affects their trading (focus).
> >
> > Most traders are very secretive.
> > Some think that trading the edge, erodes the edge.
> > Others think that they could put their trading systems and
secrets in
> > the Washington Post and it wouldn't effect their bottom line in
the
> > slightest.
> >
> > I am not doing 300%+ (if you don't talk me out if it I might do
it).
> >
> > I am talking far too much, at my own expense.
> > I might stop today because really, negativity is so subtle and I
> > can't accomodate it at all.
> >
> > IMO the only way to approach trading is to make careful
observations
> > on market behaviour and not have pre-conceived ideas on how it
should
> > work.
> >
> > If you make those observations, fearlessly (not worrying about
what
> > the neighbours will think or say) then you will see that triple
> > figures are the potential.
> >
> > Having identified the potential then I ask myself "How can I
capture
> > 100% of that" - that is how I am teaching myself to trade and
driving
> > up the returns beyond what I first imagined were possible.
> >
> > Only a handful of 'would be' traders will make it.
> >
> > Do you want me to sell YOU short by speaking to you as if you are
not
> > one of them?
> >
> > Do you want me to patronise you, withold the truth or keep the
truth
> > to myself?
> >
> > Why do I do it?
> >
> > I get carried away.
> >
> > It is a philosphical point (new age stuff about whether we are
> > wealthy if and when we are witholding information that is useful
to
> > others - what is wealth? - do you think I should sell my original
> > ideas?)
> >
> > My wife doesn't want me to give away my trading secrets and she is
> > not happy about the time I spend writing for the UKB and talking
in
> > the forum.
> >
> > I would dishonour myself, and my teachers teachers, if I didn't
act
> > according to the principles that I embody.
> >
> > I don't have a house by the lake.
> >
> > If you make it you won't end up buying Canada either.
> >
> > You are not greedy etc.
> >
> > You will be easily satisfied and get bored with trading and simply
> > slow down or stop - at a certain point.
> >
> > Anyway, as a couple of us already said - you can't keep
compounding
> > and make those returns (if you could the corps would be doing
it) -
> > you have to cap your account at a limit to sustain a reasonable
life
> > style and do something besides sitting at the screen).
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>, "Louis
> > Préfontaine"
> > <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi Brian,
> > >
> > > Just a completely naive question here. If one could make 300-
400%
> > a year,
> > > why would he still be here on the internet helping others and
> > trying to make
> > > his program better. 300-400% a year would allow me to buy the
> > Montreal
> > > Canadiens in ten years! I would be as rich as Bill Gates in 20-
25
> > years. I
> > > could even pay tons of programmers all for myself at that point.
> > >
> > > Do you understand what I mean? I do not say that I don't believe
> > it is
> > > possible, but I am very skeptical about this because personnaly
at
> > 300-400%
> > > I would pay someone to do the trades and I would sit tight on
the
> > beach
> > > somewhere far from the shitty white cold stuff all around here
in
> > Montréal!
> > > Hehe! ;-)
> > >
> > > I will try to keep my eyes open and watch for the gold. But my
> > objectives
> > > are far less than that. If I could make 35% a year (conpounded)
I
> > would be
> > > more than happy. (My gf brother-in-law is making that and he
has a
> > nice
> > > home in front of a beautiful lake and has three kids, two cars,
and
> > he seems
> > > more than happy with that!)
> > >
> > > Louis
> > >
> > > p.s. Of course I would not reject the idea of getting richer
than
> > that. If
> > > sky is to be the limit, then bring me there!
> > >
> > > 2008/2/26, brian_z111 <brian_z111@>:
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > I am still developing after approx 4 years so 300-400 is a
> > tentative
> > > > figure (I didn't pluck it out of thin air - it forced itself
upon
> > me
> > > > by observation). For that reason this is 'newish' thinking
for me
> > so
> > > > your comments are a perfect help for me to foramlise my
thinking
> > on
> > > > the subject.
> > > >
> > > > Thanks for posting.
> > > >
> > > > Obviously I am getting to the point where I am going out on a
> > limb,
> > > > relative to other traders, so confirmation from 1-2 other
traders
> > is
> > > > all I need to accept that I am not going up a dead end gully.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > brian_z
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
><amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>,
> > Dennis
> > > > Brown <see3d@> wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Brian,
> > > > >
> > > > > Points taken --though, I have a goal of 500% average in my
> > trading
> > > > > simulations. I also have a theoretical trading mode for how
good
> > > > the
> > > > > entries are with perfect exits and how good the exits are
with
> > > > perfect
> > > > > entries. That gives me a real good idea about what my upper
> > limit
> > > > > is. It also lets me explore the profit potential of
different
> > > > > timeframes so I can focus on the best ones for my trading
style.
> > > > It
> > > > > is good to know what can be achieved so you know when you
have
> > > > arrived.
> > > > >
> > > > > Best regards,
> > > > > Dennis
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > On Feb 26, 2008, at 5:18 PM, brian_z111 wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > Dennis,
> > > > > >
> > > > > >> No need to argue the point.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I believe there is a need to argue the point because
negative
> > > > > > comments from other traders affect the way we trade and
> > shouldn't
> > > > go
> > > > > > unchallenged, especially if they not accompanied by
objective
> > > > > > evidence.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I stand by my comment that 300-400%PA is the theoretical
upper
> > > > limit,
> > > > > > because if we are accepting actual returns of 40%PA we
are not
> > > > aiming
> > > > > > high enough and need to make a mental adjustment.
> > > > > >
> > > > > >> Everyone is right, depending on the
> > > > > >> particular circumstances.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > No, everyone is not right depending on circumstances.
> > > > > > To be 'right' means that our observations can be
independently
> > > > > > verified by others.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > If that isn't the case we are only suffering from self-
> > delusion.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > I agree with your points 100%.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thnakyou very much for posting them.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > brian_z
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>, Dennis
> > > > Brown <see3d@> wrote:
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> No need to argue the point. Everyone is right, depending
on
> > the
> > > > > >> particular circumstances.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> As I have pointed out before, very high returns (>3%/day
> > > > average)
> > > > > > are
> > > > > >> being made by some traders I know using hardly more than
a
> > ruler
> > > > > > for
> > > > > >> their TA --trading trend lines and support and resistance
> > levels
> > > > > > on
> > > > > >> very short timeframes (seconds to minutes) --and perhaps
a
> > couple
> > > > > > of
> > > > > >> indicators like MACD or CCI. The key is leverage and
that the
> > > > > >> winnings are not compounded, but taken off the table and
> > used to
> > > > > > live
> > > > > >> on, or put into more conservative long term positions.
The
> > > > market
> > > > > > can
> > > > > >> not support large dollar compounding more than the
average
> > of the
> > > > > > long
> > > > > >> term growth of the better performing issues. You can skim
> > large
> > > > %
> > > > > > off
> > > > > >> small $ if you fly below the radar. Greed will not work
to
> > your
> > > > > >> advantage.
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> Dennis
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >> On Feb 26, 2008, at 9:50 AM, dave_88_1961 wrote:
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>> 100% can be made in the early years but as the account
grows
> > > > > > returns
> > > > > >>> diminish.
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>> Dave
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>,
> > > > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>>> A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so
fast
> > that
> > > > > > the
> > > > > >>>>> account balance is larger than all the real estate in
the
> > US
> > > > in
> > > > > > just
> > > > > >>>>> a few years.
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>> Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired
> > effect
> > > > > > e.g. if
> > > > > >>>> we put it this way, things look a lot different:
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>> A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on
> > average, and
> > > > > >>>> trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a
home
> > in
> > > > San
> > > > > >>>> Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area.
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>> Do you think many traders with that kind of performance
> > would
> > > > > >>>> continue to trade after 10 successful years?
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>> brian_z
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>,
> > > > "brian_z111" brian_z111@
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> I draw your attention to the following article,
especially
> > > > item
> > > > > > 3:
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"?
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from
Mark
> > > > Cook.
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are
we
> > > > fooled
> > > > > > by
> > > > > >>>>> randomness a la Taleb)?
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6
years
> > > > > > before
> > > > > >>>>> that (trading bonds and stock indexes!)
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically
achieved
> > > > those
> > > > > >>>>> results was not a particularly outstanding two years
for
> > > > > > equities.
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> brian_z
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
><amibroker%
> > 40yahoogroups.com>,
> > > > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> Howard,
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>>> Any time someone suggests a growth of more than
about
> > 40%
> > > > per
> > > > > >>>>> year,
> > > > > >>>>>>> take that with a very large grain of salt.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> I expected you to disagree with my statement.
> > > > > >>>>>> I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the
numbers
> > I
> > > > > > quoted
> > > > > >>>>> as
> > > > > >>>>>> the theoretical potential.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> At his website Professor John Price posts audited
> > returns of
> > > > > >>>> approx
> > > > > >>>>>> 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple
> > Techno-
> > > > > >>>>>> fundamental methods (as I recall the figures).
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> The caveat there is that the sample period is short
and
> > > > > > selective.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with
less
> > than
> > > > > > half
> > > > > >>>>> an
> > > > > >>>>>> hour a days work and no effort to use any other
timing
> > > > > > mechanisms.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> If your statement is true we can all give up any
further
> > > > > > efforts
> > > > > >>>>> and
> > > > > >>>>>> simple trade his method.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying
> > market
> > > > (due
> > > > > >>>> to
> > > > > >>>>>> franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on
> > average
> > > > > >>>> over
> > > > > >>>>>> longer time periods.
> > > > > >>>>>> Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is
20-25%
> > > > > > without
> > > > > >>>>> any
> > > > > >>>>>> ongoing effort required what-so-ever.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper
> > Business
> > > > > > 2001
> > > > > >>>>> the
> > > > > >>>>>> first page of the first chapter in the book quotes
Stuart
> > > > > > Walton,
> > > > > >>>>>> fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average
annual
> > > > > > compounded
> > > > > >>>>>> return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years
during
> > the
> > > > > >>>>> nineties.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> As I understand it Schwager's books are well
researched
> > and
> > > > > > based
> > > > > >>>>> on
> > > > > >>>>>> verifiable case studies?
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> I only opened the book at the first chapter and
didn't
> > need
> > > > to
> > > > > > go
> > > > > >>>>> any
> > > > > >>>>>> further or to his other 2 books containing similar
> > > > testimonies.
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>> brian_z
> > > > > >>>>>>
> > > > > >>>>>
> > > > > >>>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>> Please note that this group is for discussion between
users
> > > > only.
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
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> > > > > >>>
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check
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> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>> Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>>
> > > > > >>
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between
users
> > only.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
directly
> > to
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> > > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
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> > > > > >
> > > > > > For other support material please check also:
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> > > > > >
> > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
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